GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY
Share of government expenditures in the GDPs are increasing virtually everywhere. Available data for developed countries indicate that the beginnings of this upward trend date back to the mid-19th century. Interestingly, economic growth rates did not increase significantly over time despite the incr...
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| Format: | Article |
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Mehmet Akif Ersoy University
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1327383 |
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| author | Orçun Söylemez Özkan Zülfüoğlu |
| author_facet | Orçun Söylemez Özkan Zülfüoğlu |
| author_sort | Orçun Söylemez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Share of government expenditures in the GDPs are increasing virtually everywhere. Available data for developed countries indicate that the beginnings of this upward trend date back to the mid-19th century. Interestingly, economic growth rates did not increase significantly over time despite the increases in government expenditures. Low income countries today spend more than the double of what today’s developed economies were spending on average in 1900. However, this is not helping them to converge to richer economies. Why are government expenditures increasing then? This question might have global pertinence but due to the variety of country-specific factors, it can be best studied on a single country level. In this article, the country of focal interest is Turkey. Five important variables that might affect government expenditures from different angles are evaluated regarding their contributions to the out-of-sample predictions of government expenditures using random forest methodology. Military expenditures are estimated as primarily important for determining the government expenditures in Turkey in the last fifty years, while tax collections happened to be the second most important factor affecting the ups and downs of government expenditures around a time-varying average line. Per capita income, urbanization and inflation also affect government expenditures in various ways. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7ec8ea9b66ab4617b25a12addc2dd59a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2149-1658 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Mehmet Akif Ersoy University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-7ec8ea9b66ab4617b25a12addc2dd59a2025-01-27T14:05:29ZengMehmet Akif Ersoy UniversityMehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi2149-16582021-11-01831369139310.30798/makuiibf.805079273GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEYOrçun Söylemez0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5920-8592Özkan Zülfüoğlu1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0305-1685MARMARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSAT FAKÜLTESİMARMARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSAT FAKÜLTESİShare of government expenditures in the GDPs are increasing virtually everywhere. Available data for developed countries indicate that the beginnings of this upward trend date back to the mid-19th century. Interestingly, economic growth rates did not increase significantly over time despite the increases in government expenditures. Low income countries today spend more than the double of what today’s developed economies were spending on average in 1900. However, this is not helping them to converge to richer economies. Why are government expenditures increasing then? This question might have global pertinence but due to the variety of country-specific factors, it can be best studied on a single country level. In this article, the country of focal interest is Turkey. Five important variables that might affect government expenditures from different angles are evaluated regarding their contributions to the out-of-sample predictions of government expenditures using random forest methodology. Military expenditures are estimated as primarily important for determining the government expenditures in Turkey in the last fifty years, while tax collections happened to be the second most important factor affecting the ups and downs of government expenditures around a time-varying average line. Per capita income, urbanization and inflation also affect government expenditures in various ways.https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1327383government expenditures,machine learning,random forests.kamu harcamaları,makine öğrenmesi,rassal ormanlar. |
| spellingShingle | Orçun Söylemez Özkan Zülfüoğlu GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi government expenditures, machine learning, random forests. kamu harcamaları, makine öğrenmesi, rassal ormanlar. |
| title | GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY |
| title_full | GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY |
| title_fullStr | GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY |
| title_full_unstemmed | GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY |
| title_short | GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES WITHOUT GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY |
| title_sort | government expenditures without growth the case of turkey |
| topic | government expenditures, machine learning, random forests. kamu harcamaları, makine öğrenmesi, rassal ormanlar. |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1327383 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT orcunsoylemez governmentexpenditureswithoutgrowththecaseofturkey AT ozkanzulfuoglu governmentexpenditureswithoutgrowththecaseofturkey |