Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area
Abstract In the context of global climate change, coastal urban agglomerations encounter numerous challenges, especially under the condition of rapid urbanization, which consistently threatens human life, property, and well-being. This paper presents the Ecological-Risk Constrained Land Expansion Mo...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| author | Jiayu Wang Junnan Liu Ting Wang Mengyuan Jia |
| author_facet | Jiayu Wang Junnan Liu Ting Wang Mengyuan Jia |
| author_sort | Jiayu Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In the context of global climate change, coastal urban agglomerations encounter numerous challenges, especially under the condition of rapid urbanization, which consistently threatens human life, property, and well-being. This paper presents the Ecological-Risk Constrained Land Expansion Modeling Framework to explore the land expansion patterns of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) coastal urban agglomeration from a climate adaptation perspective. We utilized InVEST and GIS to quantify the ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability index (CVI) of urban agglomerations, delimiting the ecological resilience regions and risk resilience regions as constraints for land expansion simulation. Eventually, we simulated five scenarios of land expansion in the GBA in 2035 using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results reveal that: (1) The low-resilience ecological spaces are radially distributed in a cross shape along the Pearl River, Hongliqi River and Xijiang River, with Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan overlapping more with the regions that undergo severe loss of ecosystem services and a high degree of landscape fragmentation. (2) The medium–high resilience risk space constitutes approximately 19.4%, and coastal areas such as Tolo Harbour in Pak Shek Kok, Hong Kong, and Ma On Shan New Town are exposed to potential marine disaster risks. (3) The hotspot areas of land expansion in the five scenarios indicate that the construction land of future urban agglomerations will expand towards the southeast. (4) From the perspective of balancing ecological benefits and economic benefits, the ecology and risk integrated coordination (ERIC) scenario provides a superior balance. These results emphasize the imperative of coordinating ecological protection and risk avoidance strategies in future urban expansion to achieve the safe, compact and sustainable development of coastal urban agglomerations. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-7e8f7295f2cf4cf2871d094ae348e1122025-08-20T03:45:56ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115112010.1038/s41598-025-11866-2Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay areaJiayu Wang0Junnan Liu1Ting Wang2Mengyuan Jia3School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureSchool of Architecture, Tianjin UniversitySchool of Architecture and Urban Planning, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureSchool of Architecture and Urban Planning, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureAbstract In the context of global climate change, coastal urban agglomerations encounter numerous challenges, especially under the condition of rapid urbanization, which consistently threatens human life, property, and well-being. This paper presents the Ecological-Risk Constrained Land Expansion Modeling Framework to explore the land expansion patterns of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) coastal urban agglomeration from a climate adaptation perspective. We utilized InVEST and GIS to quantify the ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability index (CVI) of urban agglomerations, delimiting the ecological resilience regions and risk resilience regions as constraints for land expansion simulation. Eventually, we simulated five scenarios of land expansion in the GBA in 2035 using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results reveal that: (1) The low-resilience ecological spaces are radially distributed in a cross shape along the Pearl River, Hongliqi River and Xijiang River, with Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan overlapping more with the regions that undergo severe loss of ecosystem services and a high degree of landscape fragmentation. (2) The medium–high resilience risk space constitutes approximately 19.4%, and coastal areas such as Tolo Harbour in Pak Shek Kok, Hong Kong, and Ma On Shan New Town are exposed to potential marine disaster risks. (3) The hotspot areas of land expansion in the five scenarios indicate that the construction land of future urban agglomerations will expand towards the southeast. (4) From the perspective of balancing ecological benefits and economic benefits, the ecology and risk integrated coordination (ERIC) scenario provides a superior balance. These results emphasize the imperative of coordinating ecological protection and risk avoidance strategies in future urban expansion to achieve the safe, compact and sustainable development of coastal urban agglomerations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11866-2Climate adaptabilityLand expansion simulationPLUS modelCoastal urban agglomeration |
| spellingShingle | Jiayu Wang Junnan Liu Ting Wang Mengyuan Jia Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area Scientific Reports Climate adaptability Land expansion simulation PLUS model Coastal urban agglomeration |
| title | Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area |
| title_full | Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area |
| title_fullStr | Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area |
| title_short | Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area |
| title_sort | scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of guangdong hong kong and macao bay area |
| topic | Climate adaptability Land expansion simulation PLUS model Coastal urban agglomeration |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11866-2 |
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