The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development
Abstract The predictability of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly limited by the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Our observational analysis suggests that considering high‐frequency wind components during the spring season may mitigate the SPB impact on ENSO predictability....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110976 |
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| author | Ting‐Wei Cao Fei Zheng Jin‐Yi Yu Xiang‐Hui Fang Wen‐Xiu Zhong |
| author_facet | Ting‐Wei Cao Fei Zheng Jin‐Yi Yu Xiang‐Hui Fang Wen‐Xiu Zhong |
| author_sort | Ting‐Wei Cao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The predictability of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly limited by the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Our observational analysis suggests that considering high‐frequency wind components during the spring season may mitigate the SPB impact on ENSO predictability. The intraseasonal zonal wind in March over the equatorial western Pacific initially perturbs the sea surface temperature (SST). It contributes nearly 40% of the east‐west SST gradient after 2–3 months, ranking first among other calendar months. This significant contribution causes March to become the earliest month to effectively indicate the following ENSO direction due to the active eastward‐propagating Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) activity. Through the obvious variation of the eastward‐propagating MJO speed, it also shows the possible close relationship between the mean SST state and the interdecadal variability in intraseasonal zonal wind. Additionally, the current strong variability of intraseasonal zonal wind suggests the important role of atmospheric information in recent ENSO development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7e791503502f466fbf15036fc13acd7f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-7e791503502f466fbf15036fc13acd7f2025-08-20T03:25:55ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-12-015123n/an/a10.1029/2024GL110976The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO DevelopmentTing‐Wei Cao0Fei Zheng1Jin‐Yi Yu2Xiang‐Hui Fang3Wen‐Xiu Zhong4Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science University of California Irvine CA USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat‐sen University Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) Zhuhai ChinaAbstract The predictability of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly limited by the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Our observational analysis suggests that considering high‐frequency wind components during the spring season may mitigate the SPB impact on ENSO predictability. The intraseasonal zonal wind in March over the equatorial western Pacific initially perturbs the sea surface temperature (SST). It contributes nearly 40% of the east‐west SST gradient after 2–3 months, ranking first among other calendar months. This significant contribution causes March to become the earliest month to effectively indicate the following ENSO direction due to the active eastward‐propagating Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) activity. Through the obvious variation of the eastward‐propagating MJO speed, it also shows the possible close relationship between the mean SST state and the interdecadal variability in intraseasonal zonal wind. Additionally, the current strong variability of intraseasonal zonal wind suggests the important role of atmospheric information in recent ENSO development.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110976El Niño‐Southern Oscillation developmentintraseasonal zonal windeastward‐propagating MJO activityair‐sea interaction |
| spellingShingle | Ting‐Wei Cao Fei Zheng Jin‐Yi Yu Xiang‐Hui Fang Wen‐Xiu Zhong The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development Geophysical Research Letters El Niño‐Southern Oscillation development intraseasonal zonal wind eastward‐propagating MJO activity air‐sea interaction |
| title | The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development |
| title_full | The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development |
| title_fullStr | The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development |
| title_short | The Unique Role of the Intraseasonal Zonal Wind in March Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Contributes to Shaping the Subsequent ENSO Development |
| title_sort | unique role of the intraseasonal zonal wind in march over the equatorial western pacific contributes to shaping the subsequent enso development |
| topic | El Niño‐Southern Oscillation development intraseasonal zonal wind eastward‐propagating MJO activity air‐sea interaction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110976 |
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