Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example
The total organic carbon content (TOC) is a core indicator for shale gas reservoir evaluations. Machine learning-based models can quickly and accurately predict TOC, which is of great significance for the production of shale gas. Based on conventional logs, the measured TOC values, and other data of...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Geofluids |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6794213 |
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| author | Jia Rong Zongyuan Zheng Xiaorong Luo Chao Li Yuping Li Xiangfeng Wei Quanchao Wei Guangchun Yu Likuan Zhang Yuhong Lei |
| author_facet | Jia Rong Zongyuan Zheng Xiaorong Luo Chao Li Yuping Li Xiangfeng Wei Quanchao Wei Guangchun Yu Likuan Zhang Yuhong Lei |
| author_sort | Jia Rong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The total organic carbon content (TOC) is a core indicator for shale gas reservoir evaluations. Machine learning-based models can quickly and accurately predict TOC, which is of great significance for the production of shale gas. Based on conventional logs, the measured TOC values, and other data of 9 typical wells in the Jiaoshiba area of the Sichuan Basin, this paper performed a Bayesian linear regression and applied a random forest machine learning model to predict TOC values of the shale from the Wufeng Formation and the lower part of the Longmaxi Formation. The results showed that the TOC value prediction accuracy was improved by more than 50% by using the well-trained machine learning models compared with the traditional ΔLogR method in an overmature and tight shale. Using the halving random search cross-validation method to optimize hyperparameters can greatly improve the speed of building the model. Furthermore, excluding the factors that affect the log value other than the TOC and taking the corrected data as input data for training could improve the prediction accuracy of the random forest model by approximately 5%. Data can be easily updated with machine learning models, which is of primary importance for improving the efficiency of shale gas exploration and development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7e4dc4fa80e649178774d91afc65f973 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1468-8115 1468-8123 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geofluids |
| spelling | doaj-art-7e4dc4fa80e649178774d91afc65f9732025-08-20T02:08:43ZengWileyGeofluids1468-81151468-81232021-01-01202110.1155/2021/67942136794213Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an ExampleJia Rong0Zongyuan Zheng1Xiaorong Luo2Chao Li3Yuping Li4Xiangfeng Wei5Quanchao Wei6Guangchun Yu7Likuan Zhang8Yuhong Lei9Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaKey Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaKey Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaKey Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaExploration Branch Company of SINOPEC, Chengdu 610041, ChinaExploration Branch Company of SINOPEC, Chengdu 610041, ChinaExploration Branch Company of SINOPEC, Chengdu 610041, ChinaExploration Branch Company of SINOPEC, Chengdu 610041, ChinaKey Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaKey Laboratory of Petroleum Resources Research, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaThe total organic carbon content (TOC) is a core indicator for shale gas reservoir evaluations. Machine learning-based models can quickly and accurately predict TOC, which is of great significance for the production of shale gas. Based on conventional logs, the measured TOC values, and other data of 9 typical wells in the Jiaoshiba area of the Sichuan Basin, this paper performed a Bayesian linear regression and applied a random forest machine learning model to predict TOC values of the shale from the Wufeng Formation and the lower part of the Longmaxi Formation. The results showed that the TOC value prediction accuracy was improved by more than 50% by using the well-trained machine learning models compared with the traditional ΔLogR method in an overmature and tight shale. Using the halving random search cross-validation method to optimize hyperparameters can greatly improve the speed of building the model. Furthermore, excluding the factors that affect the log value other than the TOC and taking the corrected data as input data for training could improve the prediction accuracy of the random forest model by approximately 5%. Data can be easily updated with machine learning models, which is of primary importance for improving the efficiency of shale gas exploration and development.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6794213 |
| spellingShingle | Jia Rong Zongyuan Zheng Xiaorong Luo Chao Li Yuping Li Xiangfeng Wei Quanchao Wei Guangchun Yu Likuan Zhang Yuhong Lei Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example Geofluids |
| title | Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example |
| title_full | Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example |
| title_fullStr | Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example |
| title_full_unstemmed | Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example |
| title_short | Machine Learning Method for TOC Prediction: Taking Wufeng and Longmaxi Shales in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China as an Example |
| title_sort | machine learning method for toc prediction taking wufeng and longmaxi shales in the sichuan basin southwest china as an example |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6794213 |
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