Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw
Abstract This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal erosion, Sea‐Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the North...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005013 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850133258612768768 |
|---|---|
| author | Rodrigue Tanguy Annett Bartsch Ingmar Nitze Anna Irrgang Pia Petzold Barbara Widhalm Clemens vonBaeckmann Julia Boike Julia Martin Aleksandra Efimova Gonçalo Vieira Dustin Whalen Birgit Heim Mareike Wieczorek Guido Grosse |
| author_facet | Rodrigue Tanguy Annett Bartsch Ingmar Nitze Anna Irrgang Pia Petzold Barbara Widhalm Clemens vonBaeckmann Julia Boike Julia Martin Aleksandra Efimova Gonçalo Vieira Dustin Whalen Birgit Heim Mareike Wieczorek Guido Grosse |
| author_sort | Rodrigue Tanguy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal erosion, Sea‐Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a new method to automatically derive long‐term coastline change rates for permafrost coasts. In addition, we identify the total number of coastal settlements and associated infrastructure that could be threatened by marine and terrestrial changes using remote sensing techniques. We extended the Arctic Coastal Infrastructure data set (SACHI) to include road types, airstrips, and artificial water reservoirs. The analysis of coastline, Ground Temperature (GT) and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) changes from 2000 to 2020, in addition with SLR projection, allowed to identify exposed settlements and infrastructure for 2030, 2050, and 2100. We validated the SACHI‐v2, GT and ALT data sets through comparisons with in‐situ data. 60% of the detected infrastructure is built on low‐lying coast (<10 m a.s.l). The results show that in 2100, 45% of all coastal settlements will be affected by SLR and 21% by coastal erosion. On average, coastal permafrost GT is increasing by 0.8°C per decade, and ALT is increasing by 6 cm per decade. In 2100, GT will become positive at 77% of the built infrastructure area. Our results highlight the circumpolar and international amplitude of the problem and emphasize the need for immediate adaptation measures to current and future environmental changes to counteract a deterioration of living conditions and ensure infrastructure sustainability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7e4620b43e2d4a28b68349192c118cb0 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-7e4620b43e2d4a28b68349192c118cb02025-08-20T02:32:00ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-12-011212n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005013Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost ThawRodrigue Tanguy0Annett Bartsch1Ingmar Nitze2Anna Irrgang3Pia Petzold4Barbara Widhalm5Clemens vonBaeckmann6Julia Boike7Julia Martin8Aleksandra Efimova9Gonçalo Vieira10Dustin Whalen11Birgit Heim12Mareike Wieczorek13Guido Grosse14b.geos GmbH Korneuburg Austriab.geos GmbH Korneuburg AustriaAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam Germanyb.geos GmbH Korneuburg Austriab.geos GmbH Korneuburg AustriaAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam Germanyb.geos GmbH Korneuburg AustriaCentre of Geographical Studies, Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning University of Lisbon Lisbon PortugalGeological Survey of Canada Natural Resources Canada Dartmouth NS CanadaAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam GermanyAbstract This study assesses the vulnerability of Arctic coastal settlements and infrastructure to coastal erosion, Sea‐Level Rise (SLR) and permafrost warming. For the first time, we characterize coastline retreat consistently along permafrost coastal settlements at the regional scale for the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a new method to automatically derive long‐term coastline change rates for permafrost coasts. In addition, we identify the total number of coastal settlements and associated infrastructure that could be threatened by marine and terrestrial changes using remote sensing techniques. We extended the Arctic Coastal Infrastructure data set (SACHI) to include road types, airstrips, and artificial water reservoirs. The analysis of coastline, Ground Temperature (GT) and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) changes from 2000 to 2020, in addition with SLR projection, allowed to identify exposed settlements and infrastructure for 2030, 2050, and 2100. We validated the SACHI‐v2, GT and ALT data sets through comparisons with in‐situ data. 60% of the detected infrastructure is built on low‐lying coast (<10 m a.s.l). The results show that in 2100, 45% of all coastal settlements will be affected by SLR and 21% by coastal erosion. On average, coastal permafrost GT is increasing by 0.8°C per decade, and ALT is increasing by 6 cm per decade. In 2100, GT will become positive at 77% of the built infrastructure area. Our results highlight the circumpolar and international amplitude of the problem and emphasize the need for immediate adaptation measures to current and future environmental changes to counteract a deterioration of living conditions and ensure infrastructure sustainability.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005013remote sensingpermafrostcoastal erosioninfrastructuresclimate changesea level rise |
| spellingShingle | Rodrigue Tanguy Annett Bartsch Ingmar Nitze Anna Irrgang Pia Petzold Barbara Widhalm Clemens vonBaeckmann Julia Boike Julia Martin Aleksandra Efimova Gonçalo Vieira Dustin Whalen Birgit Heim Mareike Wieczorek Guido Grosse Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw Earth's Future remote sensing permafrost coastal erosion infrastructures climate change sea level rise |
| title | Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw |
| title_full | Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw |
| title_fullStr | Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw |
| title_short | Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw |
| title_sort | pan arctic assessment of coastal settlements and infrastructure vulnerable to coastal erosion sea level rise and permafrost thaw |
| topic | remote sensing permafrost coastal erosion infrastructures climate change sea level rise |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005013 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rodriguetanguy panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT annettbartsch panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT ingmarnitze panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT annairrgang panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT piapetzold panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT barbarawidhalm panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT clemensvonbaeckmann panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT juliaboike panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT juliamartin panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT aleksandraefimova panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT goncalovieira panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT dustinwhalen panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT birgitheim panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT mareikewieczorek panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw AT guidogrosse panarcticassessmentofcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructurevulnerabletocoastalerosionsealevelriseandpermafrostthaw |