Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions

This study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in...

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Main Authors: Yaser Sabzevari, Saeid Eslamian, Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula, Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-04-01
Series:Atmosphere
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/482
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author Yaser Sabzevari
Saeid Eslamian
Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula
Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar
author_facet Yaser Sabzevari
Saeid Eslamian
Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula
Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar
author_sort Yaser Sabzevari
collection DOAJ
description This study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in the US and Lorestan province. The results reveal a predominantly decreasing trend in drought occurrences across Lorestan, especially in southern and southwestern areas with lower elevations. In contrast, the UCRB showed a positive trend, indicating a wet period. The western parts of the UCRB were predominantly affected by droughts. Among the stations, the Khorram Abad station exhibited the most statistically significant trend at the 99% confidence level (Z > 2.57). A temporal trend analysis of droughts revealed more positive and negative abrupt changes in the UCRB than in Lorestan. This indicates a higher degree of small-scale variability in the UCRB compared to Lorestan. This study indicates that factors such as elevation, land use changes, and proximity to water sources may contribute to the observed variations in drought trends. Additionally, the findings highlight that rising temperatures have a significantly greater impact on drought severity than reductions in precipitation. This study provides a temperature-responsive method for drought assessments, supporting the development of adaptive strategies that address snowmelt variability, seasonal water availability, and shifting drought patterns in cold regions.
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spelling doaj-art-7dc8766ff1244eb2aaee73431c44b8d12025-08-20T02:17:19ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-04-0116448210.3390/atmos16040482Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate RegionsYaser Sabzevari0Saeid Eslamian1Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula2Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar3Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 8415683111, IranDepartment of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 8415683111, IranCivil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233, USATexas A&M AgriLife, Temple, TX 76502, USAThis study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in the US and Lorestan province. The results reveal a predominantly decreasing trend in drought occurrences across Lorestan, especially in southern and southwestern areas with lower elevations. In contrast, the UCRB showed a positive trend, indicating a wet period. The western parts of the UCRB were predominantly affected by droughts. Among the stations, the Khorram Abad station exhibited the most statistically significant trend at the 99% confidence level (Z > 2.57). A temporal trend analysis of droughts revealed more positive and negative abrupt changes in the UCRB than in Lorestan. This indicates a higher degree of small-scale variability in the UCRB compared to Lorestan. This study indicates that factors such as elevation, land use changes, and proximity to water sources may contribute to the observed variations in drought trends. Additionally, the findings highlight that rising temperatures have a significantly greater impact on drought severity than reductions in precipitation. This study provides a temperature-responsive method for drought assessments, supporting the development of adaptive strategies that address snowmelt variability, seasonal water availability, and shifting drought patterns in cold regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/482drought monitoringcold-climate regionsstandardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)Mann–Kendall trend analysisLorestanUpper Colorado River Basin
spellingShingle Yaser Sabzevari
Saeid Eslamian
Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula
Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar
Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
Atmosphere
drought monitoring
cold-climate regions
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
Mann–Kendall trend analysis
Lorestan
Upper Colorado River Basin
title Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
title_full Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
title_fullStr Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
title_full_unstemmed Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
title_short Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
title_sort drought trend analysis using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in cold climate regions
topic drought monitoring
cold-climate regions
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
Mann–Kendall trend analysis
Lorestan
Upper Colorado River Basin
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/482
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