Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
This study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in...
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MDPI AG
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/482 |
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| author | Yaser Sabzevari Saeid Eslamian Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar |
| author_facet | Yaser Sabzevari Saeid Eslamian Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar |
| author_sort | Yaser Sabzevari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in the US and Lorestan province. The results reveal a predominantly decreasing trend in drought occurrences across Lorestan, especially in southern and southwestern areas with lower elevations. In contrast, the UCRB showed a positive trend, indicating a wet period. The western parts of the UCRB were predominantly affected by droughts. Among the stations, the Khorram Abad station exhibited the most statistically significant trend at the 99% confidence level (Z > 2.57). A temporal trend analysis of droughts revealed more positive and negative abrupt changes in the UCRB than in Lorestan. This indicates a higher degree of small-scale variability in the UCRB compared to Lorestan. This study indicates that factors such as elevation, land use changes, and proximity to water sources may contribute to the observed variations in drought trends. Additionally, the findings highlight that rising temperatures have a significantly greater impact on drought severity than reductions in precipitation. This study provides a temperature-responsive method for drought assessments, supporting the development of adaptive strategies that address snowmelt variability, seasonal water availability, and shifting drought patterns in cold regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7dc8766ff1244eb2aaee73431c44b8d1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-7dc8766ff1244eb2aaee73431c44b8d12025-08-20T02:17:19ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-04-0116448210.3390/atmos16040482Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate RegionsYaser Sabzevari0Saeid Eslamian1Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula2Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar3Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 8415683111, IranDepartment of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 8415683111, IranCivil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233, USATexas A&M AgriLife, Temple, TX 76502, USAThis study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in the US and Lorestan province. The results reveal a predominantly decreasing trend in drought occurrences across Lorestan, especially in southern and southwestern areas with lower elevations. In contrast, the UCRB showed a positive trend, indicating a wet period. The western parts of the UCRB were predominantly affected by droughts. Among the stations, the Khorram Abad station exhibited the most statistically significant trend at the 99% confidence level (Z > 2.57). A temporal trend analysis of droughts revealed more positive and negative abrupt changes in the UCRB than in Lorestan. This indicates a higher degree of small-scale variability in the UCRB compared to Lorestan. This study indicates that factors such as elevation, land use changes, and proximity to water sources may contribute to the observed variations in drought trends. Additionally, the findings highlight that rising temperatures have a significantly greater impact on drought severity than reductions in precipitation. This study provides a temperature-responsive method for drought assessments, supporting the development of adaptive strategies that address snowmelt variability, seasonal water availability, and shifting drought patterns in cold regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/482drought monitoringcold-climate regionsstandardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)Mann–Kendall trend analysisLorestanUpper Colorado River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Yaser Sabzevari Saeid Eslamian Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions Atmosphere drought monitoring cold-climate regions standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) Mann–Kendall trend analysis Lorestan Upper Colorado River Basin |
| title | Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions |
| title_full | Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions |
| title_fullStr | Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions |
| title_short | Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions |
| title_sort | drought trend analysis using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in cold climate regions |
| topic | drought monitoring cold-climate regions standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) Mann–Kendall trend analysis Lorestan Upper Colorado River Basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/482 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yasersabzevari droughttrendanalysisusingstandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindexincoldclimateregions AT saeideslamian droughttrendanalysisusingstandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindexincoldclimateregions AT abhiramsivaprasadpamula droughttrendanalysisusingstandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindexincoldclimateregions AT mohammadhadibazrkar droughttrendanalysisusingstandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindexincoldclimateregions |