Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis

IntroductionThis study bridges a critical gap in aviation safety research by examining how Eysenck personality traits (Neuroticism, Psychoticism, Extraversion) and gender predict dishonest behavior in high-risk aviation contexts. While prior studies have focused on the Big Five and HEXACO models in...

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Main Authors: Yu Meng, Zili Peng, Zhitong Zhang, Qiaolin Chen, Hanxi Huang, Yihan Chen, Mengqian Zhao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-04-01
Series:Frontiers in Psychology
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1525606/full
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author Yu Meng
Zili Peng
Zhitong Zhang
Qiaolin Chen
Hanxi Huang
Yihan Chen
Mengqian Zhao
author_facet Yu Meng
Zili Peng
Zhitong Zhang
Qiaolin Chen
Hanxi Huang
Yihan Chen
Mengqian Zhao
author_sort Yu Meng
collection DOAJ
description IntroductionThis study bridges a critical gap in aviation safety research by examining how Eysenck personality traits (Neuroticism, Psychoticism, Extraversion) and gender predict dishonest behavior in high-risk aviation contexts. While prior studies have focused on the Big Five and HEXACO models in ethical decision-making, empirical applications of the Eysenck framework to honesty prediction remain scarce-particularly in aviation, where dishonest acts (e.g., underreporting safety incidents) carry severe public safety consequences.MethodsWe collected behavioral data from 102 flight and air traffic control cadets using a coin-toss task. Explainable machine learning (XGBoost) was employed to model nonlinear relationships between personality, gender, and honesty. Model performance was evaluated via AUC, with SHAP analysis identifying key predictors.ResultsXGBoost achieved superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.802). SHAP analysis revealed: (1) neuroticism as the strongest predictor of dishonesty; (2) significant gender differences (higher dishonesty rates in males); and (3) threshold effects for Psychoticism and Extraversion.DiscussionThis work makes three key contributions: (1) first systematic application of the Eysenck model to aviation honesty prediction; (2) identification of gender as a critical moderating variable; and (3) development of a SHAP-driven interpretable framework that connects machine learning outputs with psychological theory. Practically, these findings enable data-driven screening of cadets' honesty tendencies during recruitment, facilitating targeted interventions for safer aviation operations.
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spelling doaj-art-7d95737ccd8c4e6da8ba7a19f774189b2025-08-20T03:06:01ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Psychology1664-10782025-04-011610.3389/fpsyg.2025.15256061525606Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysisYu MengZili PengZhitong ZhangQiaolin ChenHanxi HuangYihan ChenMengqian ZhaoIntroductionThis study bridges a critical gap in aviation safety research by examining how Eysenck personality traits (Neuroticism, Psychoticism, Extraversion) and gender predict dishonest behavior in high-risk aviation contexts. While prior studies have focused on the Big Five and HEXACO models in ethical decision-making, empirical applications of the Eysenck framework to honesty prediction remain scarce-particularly in aviation, where dishonest acts (e.g., underreporting safety incidents) carry severe public safety consequences.MethodsWe collected behavioral data from 102 flight and air traffic control cadets using a coin-toss task. Explainable machine learning (XGBoost) was employed to model nonlinear relationships between personality, gender, and honesty. Model performance was evaluated via AUC, with SHAP analysis identifying key predictors.ResultsXGBoost achieved superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.802). SHAP analysis revealed: (1) neuroticism as the strongest predictor of dishonesty; (2) significant gender differences (higher dishonesty rates in males); and (3) threshold effects for Psychoticism and Extraversion.DiscussionThis work makes three key contributions: (1) first systematic application of the Eysenck model to aviation honesty prediction; (2) identification of gender as a critical moderating variable; and (3) development of a SHAP-driven interpretable framework that connects machine learning outputs with psychological theory. Practically, these findings enable data-driven screening of cadets' honesty tendencies during recruitment, facilitating targeted interventions for safer aviation operations.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1525606/fullhonest behaviorEysenck personalitygender differencesmachine learningSHAP analysis
spellingShingle Yu Meng
Zili Peng
Zhitong Zhang
Qiaolin Chen
Hanxi Huang
Yihan Chen
Mengqian Zhao
Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis
Frontiers in Psychology
honest behavior
Eysenck personality
gender differences
machine learning
SHAP analysis
title Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis
title_full Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis
title_fullStr Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis
title_full_unstemmed Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis
title_short Predicting honest behavior based on Eysenck personality traits and gender: an explainable machine learning study using SHAP analysis
title_sort predicting honest behavior based on eysenck personality traits and gender an explainable machine learning study using shap analysis
topic honest behavior
Eysenck personality
gender differences
machine learning
SHAP analysis
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1525606/full
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