Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight
Technology roadmapping has become an important foresight tool for science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy and technology strategy development. There are, however, challenges in translating evidence from foresight into the strategies of STI agencies and the planning of research & techno...
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| Format: | Article |
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National Research University Higher School of Economics
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Foresight and STI Governance |
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| Online Access: | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19263 |
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| author | Eoin O’Sullivan Rob Phaal Charles Featherston |
| author_facet | Eoin O’Sullivan Rob Phaal Charles Featherston |
| author_sort | Eoin O’Sullivan |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Technology roadmapping has become an important foresight tool for science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy and technology strategy development. There are, however, challenges in translating evidence from foresight into the strategies of STI agencies and the planning of research & technology development (RTD) organizations. While the foresight evaluation literature identifies methodological issues related to evidence granularity, scope, and stakeholder confidence, there is limited guidance on how to ensure roadmapping outputs are strategically relevant, appropriately detailed, and credible. This paper highlights the potential of using structured visual roadmapping frameworks to anticipate potential strategic foresight evidence failures and using the adaptive and iterative nature of roadmapping processes to address them. In this paper, we distinguish between: the roadmapping framework ‘canvas’; the foresight evidence captured on the canvas; the process of generating the evidence; and any final strategic plan developed using that evidence (with goals, milestones, actions, etc). We investigate efforts to use the roadmapping canvas as a research tool and diagnostic to explore emerging technology trajectories and innovation ‘pathways’. We demonstrate that key patterns of evidence distribution on the roadmapping canvas have the potential to reveal where further evidence may need to be gathered, or where further triangulation of stakeholder perspectives may be required. We argue that by adaptively addressing these patterns at key stages within the roadmapping process (and appropriately re-scoping, re-prioritizing, and re-focusing foresight effort and resources), the granularity, coverage, and consensus of the roadmapping evidence can be greatly enhanced. We conclude the paper by summarizing a set of novel principles for adaptive agile roadmapping, reflecting on the implications for foresight more generally, and outlining a future research agenda to test and refine this approach to agile foresight.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7d0490b216cd40ea9bc0c8601bc6cb6c |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2500-2597 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foresight and STI Governance |
| spelling | doaj-art-7d0490b216cd40ea9bc0c8601bc6cb6c2025-08-20T02:26:05ZengNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsForesight and STI Governance2500-25972021-06-0115210.17323/2500-2597.2021.2.65.81Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology ForesightEoin O’Sullivan0Rob Phaal1Charles Featherston2University of Cambridge, 17 Charles Babbage Rd, Cambridge CB3 0FS, UKUniversity of Cambridge, 17 Charles Babbage Rd, Cambridge CB3 0FS, UKUK Government Office of Science, 10 Victoria Street, London, SW1H 0NN, UK Technology roadmapping has become an important foresight tool for science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy and technology strategy development. There are, however, challenges in translating evidence from foresight into the strategies of STI agencies and the planning of research & technology development (RTD) organizations. While the foresight evaluation literature identifies methodological issues related to evidence granularity, scope, and stakeholder confidence, there is limited guidance on how to ensure roadmapping outputs are strategically relevant, appropriately detailed, and credible. This paper highlights the potential of using structured visual roadmapping frameworks to anticipate potential strategic foresight evidence failures and using the adaptive and iterative nature of roadmapping processes to address them. In this paper, we distinguish between: the roadmapping framework ‘canvas’; the foresight evidence captured on the canvas; the process of generating the evidence; and any final strategic plan developed using that evidence (with goals, milestones, actions, etc). We investigate efforts to use the roadmapping canvas as a research tool and diagnostic to explore emerging technology trajectories and innovation ‘pathways’. We demonstrate that key patterns of evidence distribution on the roadmapping canvas have the potential to reveal where further evidence may need to be gathered, or where further triangulation of stakeholder perspectives may be required. We argue that by adaptively addressing these patterns at key stages within the roadmapping process (and appropriately re-scoping, re-prioritizing, and re-focusing foresight effort and resources), the granularity, coverage, and consensus of the roadmapping evidence can be greatly enhanced. We conclude the paper by summarizing a set of novel principles for adaptive agile roadmapping, reflecting on the implications for foresight more generally, and outlining a future research agenda to test and refine this approach to agile foresight. https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19263STI policytechnology roadmappingforesight methodologyemerging technology strategy |
| spellingShingle | Eoin O’Sullivan Rob Phaal Charles Featherston Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight Foresight and STI Governance STI policy technology roadmapping foresight methodology emerging technology strategy |
| title | Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight |
| title_full | Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight |
| title_fullStr | Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight |
| title_full_unstemmed | Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight |
| title_short | Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight |
| title_sort | agile roadmapping an adaptive approach to technology foresight |
| topic | STI policy technology roadmapping foresight methodology emerging technology strategy |
| url | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19263 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT eoinosullivan agileroadmappinganadaptiveapproachtotechnologyforesight AT robphaal agileroadmappinganadaptiveapproachtotechnologyforesight AT charlesfeatherston agileroadmappinganadaptiveapproachtotechnologyforesight |