A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL
The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously threatened human life all over the world since the first quarter of 2020. Hospitals have fought on the frontlines against this threat. The aim of this study is to predict the number of monthly emergency service patients for a public hospital. In particular, the im...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Mehmet Akif Ersoy University
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2120638 |
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| author | Şeyma Çelik Eroğlu Fatma Gül Altın |
| author_facet | Şeyma Çelik Eroğlu Fatma Gül Altın |
| author_sort | Şeyma Çelik Eroğlu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously threatened human life all over the world since the first quarter of 2020. Hospitals have fought on the frontlines against this threat. The aim of this study is to predict the number of monthly emergency service patients for a public hospital. In particular, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of emergency service patients was examined. While the data set for the period January 2012- June 2021 (114 months) is used in the analyses, two different data sets were created for the Box- Jenkins (B-J) and Gray Prediction approaches. Then, the number of monthly emergency service patients was predicted using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM. In the analyses, while examining the long-term trend of the number emergency services patients’ using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM were used to focus on the COVID-19 period. The findings suggest that the TGM has the most successful results in terms of evaluation criteria. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7cccae70005247e98616984a68ca6188 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2149-1658 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Mehmet Akif Ersoy University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-7cccae70005247e98616984a68ca61882025-01-27T14:02:41ZengMehmet Akif Ersoy UniversityMehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi2149-16582022-07-01921239125810.30798/makuiibf.1033816273A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITALŞeyma Çelik Eroğlu0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4573-7690Fatma Gül Altın1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9236-0502Mehmet Akif Ersoy ÜniversitesiMehmet Akif Ersoy ÜniversitesiThe COVID-19 pandemic has seriously threatened human life all over the world since the first quarter of 2020. Hospitals have fought on the frontlines against this threat. The aim of this study is to predict the number of monthly emergency service patients for a public hospital. In particular, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of emergency service patients was examined. While the data set for the period January 2012- June 2021 (114 months) is used in the analyses, two different data sets were created for the Box- Jenkins (B-J) and Gray Prediction approaches. Then, the number of monthly emergency service patients was predicted using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM. In the analyses, while examining the long-term trend of the number emergency services patients’ using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM were used to focus on the COVID-19 period. The findings suggest that the TGM has the most successful results in terms of evaluation criteria.https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2120638covid-19acil servissarimagm(1,1)tgmcovid-19emergency servicesarimagm(1,1)tgm |
| spellingShingle | Şeyma Çelik Eroğlu Fatma Gül Altın A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi covid-19 acil servis sarima gm(1,1) tgm covid-19 emergency service sarima gm(1,1) tgm |
| title | A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL |
| title_full | A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL |
| title_fullStr | A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL |
| title_full_unstemmed | A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL |
| title_short | A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL |
| title_sort | study on forecasting the impact of covid 19 on emergency service in a public hospital |
| topic | covid-19 acil servis sarima gm(1,1) tgm covid-19 emergency service sarima gm(1,1) tgm |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2120638 |
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