Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning

Current risk assessment models for predicting ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) often fail to account for the effects of medications and the complex interactions between drugs, proteins, and diseases. We developed an interpretable deep learning model, the AF-Biological-I...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Zhiheng Lyu, Jiannan Yang, Zhongzhi Xu, Weilan Wang, Weibin Cheng, Kwok-Leung Tsui, Qingpeng Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: AIP Publishing LLC 2025-06-01
Series:APL Bioengineering
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0242570
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850107945228959744
author Zhiheng Lyu
Jiannan Yang
Zhongzhi Xu
Weilan Wang
Weibin Cheng
Kwok-Leung Tsui
Qingpeng Zhang
author_facet Zhiheng Lyu
Jiannan Yang
Zhongzhi Xu
Weilan Wang
Weibin Cheng
Kwok-Leung Tsui
Qingpeng Zhang
author_sort Zhiheng Lyu
collection DOAJ
description Current risk assessment models for predicting ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) often fail to account for the effects of medications and the complex interactions between drugs, proteins, and diseases. We developed an interpretable deep learning model, the AF-Biological-IS-Path (ABioSPath), to predict one-year IS risk in AF patients by integrating drug–protein–disease pathways with real-world clinical data. Using a heterogeneous multilayer network, ABioSPath identifies mechanisms of drug actions and the propagation of comorbid diseases. By combining mechanistic pathways with patient-specific characteristics, the model provides individualized IS risk assessments and identifies potential molecular pathways involved. We utilized the electronic health record data from 7859 AF patients, collected between January 2008 and December 2009 across 43 hospitals in Hong Kong. ABioSPath outperformed baseline models in all evaluation metrics, achieving an AUROC of 0.7815 (95% CI: 0.7346–0.8283), a positive predictive value of 0.430, a negative predictive value of 0.870, a sensitivity of 0.500, a specificity of 0.885, an average precision of 0.409, and a Brier score of 0.195. Cohort-level analysis identified key proteins, such as CRP, REN, and PTGS2, within the most common pathways. Individual-level analysis further highlighted the importance of PIK3/Akt and cytokine and chemokine signaling pathways and identified IS risks associated with less-studied drugs like prochlorperazine maleate. ABioSPath offers a robust, data-driven approach for IS risk prediction, requiring only routinely collected clinical data without the need for costly biomarkers. Beyond IS, the model has potential applications in screening risks for other diseases, enhancing patient care, and providing insights for drug development.
format Article
id doaj-art-7c8cf53ba2c9441ca5f77872f7718810
institution OA Journals
issn 2473-2877
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher AIP Publishing LLC
record_format Article
series APL Bioengineering
spelling doaj-art-7c8cf53ba2c9441ca5f77872f77188102025-08-20T02:38:29ZengAIP Publishing LLCAPL Bioengineering2473-28772025-06-0192026104026104-1210.1063/5.0242570Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learningZhiheng Lyu0Jiannan Yang1Zhongzhi Xu2Weilan Wang3Weibin Cheng4Kwok-Leung Tsui5Qingpeng Zhang6School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaMusketeers Foundation Institute of Data Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaCentre for Healthy Longevity, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeDepartment of Data Science, City University of Hong KongChinaDepartment of Manufacturing, Systems, and Industrial Engineering, University of Texas, Arlington, Texas 76019, USA;Musketeers Foundation Institute of Data Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaCurrent risk assessment models for predicting ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) often fail to account for the effects of medications and the complex interactions between drugs, proteins, and diseases. We developed an interpretable deep learning model, the AF-Biological-IS-Path (ABioSPath), to predict one-year IS risk in AF patients by integrating drug–protein–disease pathways with real-world clinical data. Using a heterogeneous multilayer network, ABioSPath identifies mechanisms of drug actions and the propagation of comorbid diseases. By combining mechanistic pathways with patient-specific characteristics, the model provides individualized IS risk assessments and identifies potential molecular pathways involved. We utilized the electronic health record data from 7859 AF patients, collected between January 2008 and December 2009 across 43 hospitals in Hong Kong. ABioSPath outperformed baseline models in all evaluation metrics, achieving an AUROC of 0.7815 (95% CI: 0.7346–0.8283), a positive predictive value of 0.430, a negative predictive value of 0.870, a sensitivity of 0.500, a specificity of 0.885, an average precision of 0.409, and a Brier score of 0.195. Cohort-level analysis identified key proteins, such as CRP, REN, and PTGS2, within the most common pathways. Individual-level analysis further highlighted the importance of PIK3/Akt and cytokine and chemokine signaling pathways and identified IS risks associated with less-studied drugs like prochlorperazine maleate. ABioSPath offers a robust, data-driven approach for IS risk prediction, requiring only routinely collected clinical data without the need for costly biomarkers. Beyond IS, the model has potential applications in screening risks for other diseases, enhancing patient care, and providing insights for drug development.http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0242570
spellingShingle Zhiheng Lyu
Jiannan Yang
Zhongzhi Xu
Weilan Wang
Weibin Cheng
Kwok-Leung Tsui
Qingpeng Zhang
Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning
APL Bioengineering
title Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning
title_full Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning
title_fullStr Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning
title_short Predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug–protein–disease network-based deep learning
title_sort predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation using heterogeneous drug protein disease network based deep learning
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0242570
work_keys_str_mv AT zhihenglyu predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning
AT jiannanyang predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning
AT zhongzhixu predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning
AT weilanwang predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning
AT weibincheng predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning
AT kwokleungtsui predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning
AT qingpengzhang predictingtheriskofischemicstrokeinpatientswithatrialfibrillationusingheterogeneousdrugproteindiseasenetworkbaseddeeplearning