Evaluation of a BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 Model for the Monthly Prediction of Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin
The performance of monthly prediction of extreme precipitation from the BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 model over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) using historical hindcast data from 2008 to 2022 was evaluated in this study, mainly from three aspects: overall performance in predicting daily precipitation rates, system...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/7/830 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | The performance of monthly prediction of extreme precipitation from the BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 model over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) using historical hindcast data from 2008 to 2022 was evaluated in this study, mainly from three aspects: overall performance in predicting daily precipitation rates, systematic biases, and monthly prediction of extreme precipitation metrics. The results showed that the BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 model demonstrates approximately 10-day predictive skill for summer daily precipitation over the YRB. Relatively higher skill regions concentrate in the central basin, while skill degradation proves more pronounced in downstream areas compared to the upper basin. After correcting model systematic biases, prediction skills for total precipitation-related metrics significantly surpass those of extreme precipitation indices, and metrics related to precipitation amounts demonstrate relatively higher skill compared to those associated with precipitation days. Total precipitation (TP) and rainy days (RD) exhibit comparable skills in June and July, with August showing weaker performance. Nevertheless, basin-wide predictions within 10-day lead times remain practically valuable for most regions. Prediction skills for extreme precipitation amounts and extreme precipitation days share similar spatiotemporal patterns, with high-skill regions shifting progressively south-to-north from June to August. Significant skills for June–July are constrained within 10-day leads, while August skills rarely exceed 1 week. Further analysis reveals that the predictive capability of the model predominantly originates from normal or below-normal precipitation years, whereas the accurate forecasting of extremely wet years remains a critical challenge, which highlights limitations in capturing mechanisms governing exceptional precipitation events. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2073-4433 |