An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias
The optimism bias is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the likelihood of good outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes. Associated with improved quality of life, optimism bias is considered to be adaptive and is a promising avenue of research for mental health interven...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ubiquity Press
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Computational Psychiatry |
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| Online Access: | https://account.cpsyjournal.org/index.php/up-j-cp/article/view/125 |
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| author | Elizabeth L. Fisher Christopher J. Whyte Jakob Hohwy |
| author_facet | Elizabeth L. Fisher Christopher J. Whyte Jakob Hohwy |
| author_sort | Elizabeth L. Fisher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The optimism bias is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the likelihood of good outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes. Associated with improved quality of life, optimism bias is considered to be adaptive and is a promising avenue of research for mental health interventions in conditions where individuals lack optimism such as major depressive disorder. Here we lay the groundwork for future research on optimism as an intervention by introducing a domain general formal model of optimism bias, which can be applied in different task settings. Employing the active inference framework, we propose a model of the optimism bias as high precision likelihood biased towards positive outcomes. First, we simulate how optimism may be lost during development by exposure to negative events. We then ground our model in the empirical literature by showing how the developmentally acquired differences in optimism are expressed in a belief updating task typically used to assess optimism bias. Finally, we show how optimism affects action in a modified two-armed bandit task. Our model and the simulations it affords provide a computational basis for understanding how optimism bias may emerge, how it may be expressed in standard tasks used to assess optimism, and how it affects agents’ decision-making and actions; in combination, this provides a basis for future research on optimism as a mental health intervention. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7c2e31fd67a741e5834ed7019e94b8e7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2379-6227 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Ubiquity Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Computational Psychiatry |
| spelling | doaj-art-7c2e31fd67a741e5834ed7019e94b8e72025-02-11T05:31:28ZengUbiquity PressComputational Psychiatry2379-62272025-01-01913–223–2210.5334/cpsy.125102An Active Inference Model of the Optimism BiasElizabeth L. Fisher0Christopher J. Whyte1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4627-0503Jakob Hohwy2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3906-3060Monash Centre for Consciousness and Contemplative Studies, Monash University, MelbourneMonash Centre for Consciousness and Contemplative Studies, Monash University, Melbourne; Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney; Centre for Complex Systems, The University of Sydney, SydneyMonash Centre for Consciousness and Contemplative Studies, Monash University, MelbourneThe optimism bias is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the likelihood of good outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes. Associated with improved quality of life, optimism bias is considered to be adaptive and is a promising avenue of research for mental health interventions in conditions where individuals lack optimism such as major depressive disorder. Here we lay the groundwork for future research on optimism as an intervention by introducing a domain general formal model of optimism bias, which can be applied in different task settings. Employing the active inference framework, we propose a model of the optimism bias as high precision likelihood biased towards positive outcomes. First, we simulate how optimism may be lost during development by exposure to negative events. We then ground our model in the empirical literature by showing how the developmentally acquired differences in optimism are expressed in a belief updating task typically used to assess optimism bias. Finally, we show how optimism affects action in a modified two-armed bandit task. Our model and the simulations it affords provide a computational basis for understanding how optimism bias may emerge, how it may be expressed in standard tasks used to assess optimism, and how it affects agents’ decision-making and actions; in combination, this provides a basis for future research on optimism as a mental health intervention.https://account.cpsyjournal.org/index.php/up-j-cp/article/view/125optimism biasactive inferencebelief updatingdepression |
| spellingShingle | Elizabeth L. Fisher Christopher J. Whyte Jakob Hohwy An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias Computational Psychiatry optimism bias active inference belief updating depression |
| title | An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias |
| title_full | An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias |
| title_fullStr | An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias |
| title_short | An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias |
| title_sort | active inference model of the optimism bias |
| topic | optimism bias active inference belief updating depression |
| url | https://account.cpsyjournal.org/index.php/up-j-cp/article/view/125 |
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