Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions
The value of ecosystem services (ESV) serves as a crucial metric for assessing the cost-effectiveness of ecosystems and evaluating their economic worth. Predicting the evolution of ESV across various land uses under different scenarios is essential for maintaining ecological stability and fostering...
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MDPI AG
2025-04-01
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| author | Jixuan Yan Gengxin Zhang Wenning Wang Zichen Guo Jie Li Xiangdong Yao Pengcheng Gao Qiang Li Meihua Zhang Miao Song |
| author_facet | Jixuan Yan Gengxin Zhang Wenning Wang Zichen Guo Jie Li Xiangdong Yao Pengcheng Gao Qiang Li Meihua Zhang Miao Song |
| author_sort | Jixuan Yan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The value of ecosystem services (ESV) serves as a crucial metric for assessing the cost-effectiveness of ecosystems and evaluating their economic worth. Predicting the evolution of ESV across various land uses under different scenarios is essential for maintaining ecological stability and fostering sustainable developm0ent. Utilizing land use change data combined with the PLUS predictive model and ecosystem service value equivalence techniques, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of ESV in Yuzhong County, China. The results indicate that the overall ESV distribution exhibits a “fragmented northeast, clustered southwest” pattern, dominated by high-high and low-low clustering. Among the driving factors, elevation exerts the greatest influence on ESV, followed by precipitation and population density, while slope contributes least. Under natural development scenarios, the ESV remains relatively stable compared to the base year of 2020. In contrast, the farmland protection scenario effectively preserves the ESV associated with cultivated land. However, the economic development scenario leads to a significant decline in the overall ESV, with a retraction of high-value areas and an expansion of low-value regions. These insights provide a fresh perspective for analyzing the factors influencing ESV and for conducting multi-scenario predictions, thereby aiding in the development of ecological resource conservation and landscape ecological risk prevention strategies in the study region. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj-art-7c2bd6f8a7524e959ad548ce7b4dd4b82025-08-20T02:18:09ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-04-0114483310.3390/land14040833Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario PredictionsJixuan Yan0Gengxin Zhang1Wenning Wang2Zichen Guo3Jie Li4Xiangdong Yao5Pengcheng Gao6Qiang Li7Meihua Zhang8Miao Song9College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaYaojie Coal Power Group Tianzhu Coal Industry Company, Wuwei 733211, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, ChinaThe value of ecosystem services (ESV) serves as a crucial metric for assessing the cost-effectiveness of ecosystems and evaluating their economic worth. Predicting the evolution of ESV across various land uses under different scenarios is essential for maintaining ecological stability and fostering sustainable developm0ent. Utilizing land use change data combined with the PLUS predictive model and ecosystem service value equivalence techniques, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of ESV in Yuzhong County, China. The results indicate that the overall ESV distribution exhibits a “fragmented northeast, clustered southwest” pattern, dominated by high-high and low-low clustering. Among the driving factors, elevation exerts the greatest influence on ESV, followed by precipitation and population density, while slope contributes least. Under natural development scenarios, the ESV remains relatively stable compared to the base year of 2020. In contrast, the farmland protection scenario effectively preserves the ESV associated with cultivated land. However, the economic development scenario leads to a significant decline in the overall ESV, with a retraction of high-value areas and an expansion of low-value regions. These insights provide a fresh perspective for analyzing the factors influencing ESV and for conducting multi-scenario predictions, thereby aiding in the development of ecological resource conservation and landscape ecological risk prevention strategies in the study region.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/4/833ecological service valueinfluencing factorsmulti-scenario predictionYuzhong Countyspatiotemporal evolution |
| spellingShingle | Jixuan Yan Gengxin Zhang Wenning Wang Zichen Guo Jie Li Xiangdong Yao Pengcheng Gao Qiang Li Meihua Zhang Miao Song Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions Land ecological service value influencing factors multi-scenario prediction Yuzhong County spatiotemporal evolution |
| title | Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions |
| title_full | Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions |
| title_short | Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions |
| title_sort | analysis of factors influencing the ecosystem service value in yuzhong county and multi scenario predictions |
| topic | ecological service value influencing factors multi-scenario prediction Yuzhong County spatiotemporal evolution |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/4/833 |
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