Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War

This paper examines the self-similarity (long memory) in prices of crude oil markets, namely Brent and West Texas Instruments (WTI), by means of fractals. Specifically, price series are decomposed by stationary wavelet transform (SWT) to obtain their short and long oscillations. Then, the Hurst expo...

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Main Author: Salim Lahmiri
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Fractal and Fractional
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/9/3/176
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author Salim Lahmiri
author_facet Salim Lahmiri
author_sort Salim Lahmiri
collection DOAJ
description This paper examines the self-similarity (long memory) in prices of crude oil markets, namely Brent and West Texas Instruments (WTI), by means of fractals. Specifically, price series are decomposed by stationary wavelet transform (SWT) to obtain their short and long oscillations. Then, the Hurst exponent is estimated from each resulting oscillation by rescaled analysis (R/S) to represent hidden fractals in the original price series. The analysis is performed during three periods: the calm period (before the COVID-19 pandemic), the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. In summary, prices of Brent and WTI exhibited significant increases in persistence in long movements during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, they showed a significant increase in anti-persistence in short movements during the pandemic and a significant decrease in anti-persistence during the Russia-Ukraine war. It is concluded that both COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war significantly affected long memory in the short and long movements of Brent and WTI prices.
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spelling doaj-art-7b49a71711964df68009eb054413ea112025-08-20T03:43:31ZengMDPI AGFractal and Fractional2504-31102025-03-019317610.3390/fractalfract9030176Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine WarSalim Lahmiri0Supply Chain and Business Technology Management Department, John Molson School of Business, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H3H 0A1, CanadaThis paper examines the self-similarity (long memory) in prices of crude oil markets, namely Brent and West Texas Instruments (WTI), by means of fractals. Specifically, price series are decomposed by stationary wavelet transform (SWT) to obtain their short and long oscillations. Then, the Hurst exponent is estimated from each resulting oscillation by rescaled analysis (R/S) to represent hidden fractals in the original price series. The analysis is performed during three periods: the calm period (before the COVID-19 pandemic), the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. In summary, prices of Brent and WTI exhibited significant increases in persistence in long movements during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, they showed a significant increase in anti-persistence in short movements during the pandemic and a significant decrease in anti-persistence during the Russia-Ukraine war. It is concluded that both COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war significantly affected long memory in the short and long movements of Brent and WTI prices.https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/9/3/176crude oil marketBrentWTIstationary wavelet transformlong memoryHurst exponent
spellingShingle Salim Lahmiri
Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War
Fractal and Fractional
crude oil market
Brent
WTI
stationary wavelet transform
long memory
Hurst exponent
title Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War
title_full Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War
title_fullStr Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War
title_short Analysis of Self-Similarity in Short and Long Movements of Crude Oil Prices by Combination of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Range-Scale Analysis: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine War
title_sort analysis of self similarity in short and long movements of crude oil prices by combination of stationary wavelet transform and range scale analysis effects of the covid 19 pandemic and russia ukraine war
topic crude oil market
Brent
WTI
stationary wavelet transform
long memory
Hurst exponent
url https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/9/3/176
work_keys_str_mv AT salimlahmiri analysisofselfsimilarityinshortandlongmovementsofcrudeoilpricesbycombinationofstationarywavelettransformandrangescaleanalysiseffectsofthecovid19pandemicandrussiaukrainewar