A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions
Abstract We partnered with a utility in the U.S. state of Illinois to develop and pilot an approach to estimate the economic impacts of widespread, long duration (WLD) power interruptions. We surveyed their customers about hypothetical blackouts, identifying and classifying mitigating/resilience beh...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58537-4 |
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| author | Ian Sue Wing Peter H. Larsen Juan Pablo Carvallo Alan Sanstad Dan Wei Adam Rose Sunhee Baik Jeremy Smith Christopher Ramee Ridge Peterson |
| author_facet | Ian Sue Wing Peter H. Larsen Juan Pablo Carvallo Alan Sanstad Dan Wei Adam Rose Sunhee Baik Jeremy Smith Christopher Ramee Ridge Peterson |
| author_sort | Ian Sue Wing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We partnered with a utility in the U.S. state of Illinois to develop and pilot an approach to estimate the economic impacts of widespread, long duration (WLD) power interruptions. We surveyed their customers about hypothetical blackouts, identifying and classifying mitigating/resilience behaviors and quantifying their costs and benefits. Survey results are scaled up to the broader regional economy, and used to drive a computational general equilibrium (CGE) simulation of the effects of power interruptions and attendant customer responses (e.g., relocation, backup generation). Impacts are severe: 1-, 3-, and 14-day interruptions reduce the utility service area’s three-month GDP by $1.8 Bn (1.3%), $3.7 Bn (2.6%) and $15.2 Bn (10.4%), respectively, with losses driven overwhelmingly by disequilibrium responses to shortages as opposed to price signals (71%–88%). Doubling backup power penetration moderates GDP losses by 11%–14%, and is relatively least beneficial during the longest interruption duration. Results highlight previously unquantified economic losses that can potentially be avoided by investments in power system resilience. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7b2f9f528c054cfbbc340b2d9d867de9 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-7b2f9f528c054cfbbc340b2d9d867de92025-08-20T03:06:54ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-04-0116111310.1038/s41467-025-58537-4A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptionsIan Sue Wing0Peter H. Larsen1Juan Pablo Carvallo2Alan Sanstad3Dan Wei4Adam Rose5Sunhee Baik6Jeremy Smith7Christopher Ramee8Ridge Peterson9Boston UniversityLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryUniversity of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern CaliforniaLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryCalifornia Energy CommissionResource Innovations Inc.Resource Innovations Inc.Abstract We partnered with a utility in the U.S. state of Illinois to develop and pilot an approach to estimate the economic impacts of widespread, long duration (WLD) power interruptions. We surveyed their customers about hypothetical blackouts, identifying and classifying mitigating/resilience behaviors and quantifying their costs and benefits. Survey results are scaled up to the broader regional economy, and used to drive a computational general equilibrium (CGE) simulation of the effects of power interruptions and attendant customer responses (e.g., relocation, backup generation). Impacts are severe: 1-, 3-, and 14-day interruptions reduce the utility service area’s three-month GDP by $1.8 Bn (1.3%), $3.7 Bn (2.6%) and $15.2 Bn (10.4%), respectively, with losses driven overwhelmingly by disequilibrium responses to shortages as opposed to price signals (71%–88%). Doubling backup power penetration moderates GDP losses by 11%–14%, and is relatively least beneficial during the longest interruption duration. Results highlight previously unquantified economic losses that can potentially be avoided by investments in power system resilience.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58537-4 |
| spellingShingle | Ian Sue Wing Peter H. Larsen Juan Pablo Carvallo Alan Sanstad Dan Wei Adam Rose Sunhee Baik Jeremy Smith Christopher Ramee Ridge Peterson A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions Nature Communications |
| title | A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions |
| title_full | A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions |
| title_fullStr | A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions |
| title_short | A Method to estimate the economy-wide consequences of widespread, long duration electric power interruptions |
| title_sort | method to estimate the economy wide consequences of widespread long duration electric power interruptions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58537-4 |
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