Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China
In comparison with conventional hydrological parameters such as water levels and temperatures, geochemical changes induced by earthquakes have become increasingly important. It should be noted that hydrogen (δ<sup>2</sup>H) and oxygen isotopes (δ<sup>18</sup>O) offer the grea...
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2025-05-01
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| author | Yuxuan Chen Fuqiong Huang Leyin Hu Zhiguo Wang Mingbo Yang Peixue Hua Xiaoru Sun Shijun Zhu Yanan Zhang Xiaodong Wu Zhihui Wang Lvqing Xu Kongyan Han Bowen Cui Hongyan Dong Boxiu Fei Yonggang Zhou |
| author_facet | Yuxuan Chen Fuqiong Huang Leyin Hu Zhiguo Wang Mingbo Yang Peixue Hua Xiaoru Sun Shijun Zhu Yanan Zhang Xiaodong Wu Zhihui Wang Lvqing Xu Kongyan Han Bowen Cui Hongyan Dong Boxiu Fei Yonggang Zhou |
| author_sort | Yuxuan Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In comparison with conventional hydrological parameters such as water levels and temperatures, geochemical changes induced by earthquakes have become increasingly important. It should be noted that hydrogen (δ<sup>2</sup>H) and oxygen isotopes (δ<sup>18</sup>O) offer the greatest potential as precursor proxies of earthquakes. Here, we conducted high-resolution sampling (weekly, 59 samples), measuring consecutive δ<sup>2</sup>H and δ<sup>18</sup>O levels at the two sites of the WLY well and SS spring in the Yan-Huai Basin of Beijing from June 2021 to June 2022. During the period of this sampling, several small earthquakes of ML > 1.6 occurred in Beijing. We used statistical methods (analysis of variance) to test the significant differences, used Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) for data clustering, and then used Bayesian Mixing Models (MixSIAR) to calculate the proportions of the source contributions. We found significant four-stage patterns of change processes in δ<sup>2</sup>H and δ<sup>18</sup>O at both sites. The WLY well exhibited a distinct four-stage variation pattern: initial stable development (WT1) followed by a rapid rise (WT2) and sudden fall (WT3) before the small earthquakes, and finally gradual stabilization after earthquakes (WT4). In contrast, the SS spring displayed an inverse pattern, beginning with stable development (ST1), then undergoing a rapid falling (ST2) and sudden rising (ST3) before the small earthquakes, and finally stabilizing through stepwise reduction after the earthquakes (ST4). The most likely mechanisms were differences in the time of rupture between the carbonate in WLY and granite in SS under sustained stress. The stress induced source mixing of fluid from the surface or deeper groundwater-source reservoirs. The hypothesis was supported by the MixSIAR model, calculating the variational proportion of source contributions in the four stages. This work permitted the use of high-resolution isotopic data for statistical confirmation of concomitant shifts during the earthquakes, provided the mechanisms behind them, and highlighted the potential for the consecutive monitoring of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicators in earthquake-prediction studies. |
| format | Article |
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| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-7aa87d86e674476186e3d07a3370ff072025-08-20T02:21:06ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632025-05-0115619210.3390/geosciences15060192Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, ChinaYuxuan Chen0Fuqiong Huang1Leyin Hu2Zhiguo Wang3Mingbo Yang4Peixue Hua5Xiaoru Sun6Shijun Zhu7Yanan Zhang8Xiaodong Wu9Zhihui Wang10Lvqing Xu11Kongyan Han12Bowen Cui13Hongyan Dong14Boxiu Fei15Yonggang Zhou16Beijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaBeijing Earthquake Agency, Haidian, Beijing 100080, ChinaThe Bureau of Seismology of Yanqing District of Beijing, Beijing 102199, ChinaIn comparison with conventional hydrological parameters such as water levels and temperatures, geochemical changes induced by earthquakes have become increasingly important. It should be noted that hydrogen (δ<sup>2</sup>H) and oxygen isotopes (δ<sup>18</sup>O) offer the greatest potential as precursor proxies of earthquakes. Here, we conducted high-resolution sampling (weekly, 59 samples), measuring consecutive δ<sup>2</sup>H and δ<sup>18</sup>O levels at the two sites of the WLY well and SS spring in the Yan-Huai Basin of Beijing from June 2021 to June 2022. During the period of this sampling, several small earthquakes of ML > 1.6 occurred in Beijing. We used statistical methods (analysis of variance) to test the significant differences, used Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) for data clustering, and then used Bayesian Mixing Models (MixSIAR) to calculate the proportions of the source contributions. We found significant four-stage patterns of change processes in δ<sup>2</sup>H and δ<sup>18</sup>O at both sites. The WLY well exhibited a distinct four-stage variation pattern: initial stable development (WT1) followed by a rapid rise (WT2) and sudden fall (WT3) before the small earthquakes, and finally gradual stabilization after earthquakes (WT4). In contrast, the SS spring displayed an inverse pattern, beginning with stable development (ST1), then undergoing a rapid falling (ST2) and sudden rising (ST3) before the small earthquakes, and finally stabilizing through stepwise reduction after the earthquakes (ST4). The most likely mechanisms were differences in the time of rupture between the carbonate in WLY and granite in SS under sustained stress. The stress induced source mixing of fluid from the surface or deeper groundwater-source reservoirs. The hypothesis was supported by the MixSIAR model, calculating the variational proportion of source contributions in the four stages. This work permitted the use of high-resolution isotopic data for statistical confirmation of concomitant shifts during the earthquakes, provided the mechanisms behind them, and highlighted the potential for the consecutive monitoring of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicators in earthquake-prediction studies.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/6/192earthquake precursorgroundwater geochemistrystatistical analysisself-organizing maps (SOMs)MixSIAR model |
| spellingShingle | Yuxuan Chen Fuqiong Huang Leyin Hu Zhiguo Wang Mingbo Yang Peixue Hua Xiaoru Sun Shijun Zhu Yanan Zhang Xiaodong Wu Zhihui Wang Lvqing Xu Kongyan Han Bowen Cui Hongyan Dong Boxiu Fei Yonggang Zhou Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China Geosciences earthquake precursor groundwater geochemistry statistical analysis self-organizing maps (SOMs) MixSIAR model |
| title | Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China |
| title_full | Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China |
| title_fullStr | Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China |
| title_short | Two Opposite Change Patterns Before Small Earthquakes Based on Consecutive Measurements of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes at Two Seismic Monitoring Sites in Northern Beijing, China |
| title_sort | two opposite change patterns before small earthquakes based on consecutive measurements of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes at two seismic monitoring sites in northern beijing china |
| topic | earthquake precursor groundwater geochemistry statistical analysis self-organizing maps (SOMs) MixSIAR model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/6/192 |
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