Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach
The relict tree <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i>, a Tertiary paleoendemic with significant ecological and timber value, prefers warm–cool humid climates and acidic soils. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we modeled its distribution under current and future climate scenarios (SSP, Shared Socioecon...
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MDPI AG
2025-07-01
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| author | Yuanyuan Jiang Honghua Zhang Jun Cui Lei Zheng Bingqian Ning Danping Xu |
| author_facet | Yuanyuan Jiang Honghua Zhang Jun Cui Lei Zheng Bingqian Ning Danping Xu |
| author_sort | Yuanyuan Jiang |
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| description | The relict tree <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i>, a Tertiary paleoendemic with significant ecological and timber value, prefers warm–cool humid climates and acidic soils. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we modeled its distribution under current and future climate scenarios (SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). High-suitability areas (>0.6 probability) under current conditions are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and the Yellow–Yangtze transition zones. By 2050, projections show northwestward expansions (14.32–18.76% increase in area) and eastward movement toward Central China under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. However, by 2090, habitat loss could exceed 22% under SSP5-8.5. The main environmental drivers of its distribution are minimum coldest-month temperature (bio6, 38.7%), annual precipitation (bio12, 29.1%), and temperature range (bio7, 18.5%). Precipitation seasonality and thermal extremes are expected to become more significant constraints in the future. Conservation strategies should focus on the following: (1) protecting refugia in the Daba–Wushan mountains, (2) facilitating assisted migration to northwestern high-latitude regions, and (3) preserving microclimates. This study offers a framework for evidence-based conservation of paleoendemic species under climate change. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-7a41a0bf8dca4a6286a39c8b753ed28b2025-08-20T03:35:37ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182025-07-0117746710.3390/d17070467Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling ApproachYuanyuan Jiang0Honghua Zhang1Jun Cui2Lei Zheng3Bingqian Ning4Danping Xu5Characteristic Forest Industry Development Research Center, Huangshan University, Huangshan 245041, ChinaCollege of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, Huangshan University, Huangshan 245041, ChinaCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, Huangshan University, Huangshan 245041, ChinaCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, Huangshan University, Huangshan 245041, ChinaCollege of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaThe relict tree <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i>, a Tertiary paleoendemic with significant ecological and timber value, prefers warm–cool humid climates and acidic soils. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we modeled its distribution under current and future climate scenarios (SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). High-suitability areas (>0.6 probability) under current conditions are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and the Yellow–Yangtze transition zones. By 2050, projections show northwestward expansions (14.32–18.76% increase in area) and eastward movement toward Central China under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. However, by 2090, habitat loss could exceed 22% under SSP5-8.5. The main environmental drivers of its distribution are minimum coldest-month temperature (bio6, 38.7%), annual precipitation (bio12, 29.1%), and temperature range (bio7, 18.5%). Precipitation seasonality and thermal extremes are expected to become more significant constraints in the future. Conservation strategies should focus on the following: (1) protecting refugia in the Daba–Wushan mountains, (2) facilitating assisted migration to northwestern high-latitude regions, and (3) preserving microclimates. This study offers a framework for evidence-based conservation of paleoendemic species under climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/7/467assisted migrationecological modelinghabitat suitabilitypaleoendemismspecies distribution modelingthermal adaptation |
| spellingShingle | Yuanyuan Jiang Honghua Zhang Jun Cui Lei Zheng Bingqian Ning Danping Xu Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach Diversity assisted migration ecological modeling habitat suitability paleoendemism species distribution modeling thermal adaptation |
| title | Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach |
| title_full | Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach |
| title_fullStr | Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach |
| title_short | Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach |
| title_sort | climate driven range shifts of the endangered i cercidiphyllum japonicum i in china a maxent modeling approach |
| topic | assisted migration ecological modeling habitat suitability paleoendemism species distribution modeling thermal adaptation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/7/467 |
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