Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach

Climate-Driven Range Shifts of the Endangered <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i> in China: A MaxEnt Modeling Approach

The relict tree <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i>, a Tertiary paleoendemic with significant ecological and timber value, prefers warm–cool humid climates and acidic soils. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we modeled its distribution under current and future climate scenarios (SSP, Shared Socioecon...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yuanyuan Jiang, Honghua Zhang, Jun Cui, Lei Zheng, Bingqian Ning, Danping Xu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Diversity
Subjects:
assisted migration
ecological modeling
habitat suitability
paleoendemism
species distribution modeling
thermal adaptation
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/7/467
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Summary:The relict tree <i>Cercidiphyllum japonicum</i>, a Tertiary paleoendemic with significant ecological and timber value, prefers warm–cool humid climates and acidic soils. Using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we modeled its distribution under current and future climate scenarios (SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). High-suitability areas (>0.6 probability) under current conditions are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and the Yellow–Yangtze transition zones. By 2050, projections show northwestward expansions (14.32–18.76% increase in area) and eastward movement toward Central China under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. However, by 2090, habitat loss could exceed 22% under SSP5-8.5. The main environmental drivers of its distribution are minimum coldest-month temperature (bio6, 38.7%), annual precipitation (bio12, 29.1%), and temperature range (bio7, 18.5%). Precipitation seasonality and thermal extremes are expected to become more significant constraints in the future. Conservation strategies should focus on the following: (1) protecting refugia in the Daba–Wushan mountains, (2) facilitating assisted migration to northwestern high-latitude regions, and (3) preserving microclimates. This study offers a framework for evidence-based conservation of paleoendemic species under climate change.
ISSN:1424-2818

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