Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study

Introduction Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescent...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: David Watkins, Jessica Hale, Brian Hutchinson, Ishu Kataria, Vasilis Kontis, Rachel Nugent
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2019-03-01
Series:BMJ Global Health
Online Access:https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/2/e001335.full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850255632614031360
author David Watkins
Jessica Hale
Brian Hutchinson
Ishu Kataria
Vasilis Kontis
Rachel Nugent
author_facet David Watkins
Jessica Hale
Brian Hutchinson
Ishu Kataria
Vasilis Kontis
Rachel Nugent
author_sort David Watkins
collection DOAJ
description Introduction Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescents worldwide.Methods We identified six interventions targeted at adolescent tobacco smoking, heavy episodic drinking and obesity and supported by effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence. Based on a population-level cohort of adolescents in 70 representative countries, we assessed the global mortality consequences of fully implementing these interventions over 2020–2070 using the potential impact fraction approach. We calculated the economic benefits of reduced mortality and estimated the required financial costs, discounting both at 3% annually. We also conducted best-case and worst-case scenario analyses.Results Full implementation of these interventions worldwide could avert nearly 10% of premature deaths among this cohort, translating to about US$400 billion in cumulative economic benefits. Cumulatively, the required costs would be about US$85 billion, suggesting that every US$1 of public money invested would generate US$5 in increased human capital. Tobacco taxes generally conferred the highest economic returns; however, an in-depth analysis of three countries illustrated the potential for different priorities, such as alcohol control, to emerge.Conclusion From a life course perspective, implementation of a package of interventions to reduce NCD risk among adolescents worldwide would substantially reduce premature mortality at reasonable costs. Our analysis illustrates the importance of integrating NCD prevention policies into the emerging global agenda for adolescent health and well-being.
format Article
id doaj-art-7a3ab7cdb4c842a2ac110040ecc73716
institution OA Journals
issn 2059-7908
language English
publishDate 2019-03-01
publisher BMJ Publishing Group
record_format Article
series BMJ Global Health
spelling doaj-art-7a3ab7cdb4c842a2ac110040ecc737162025-08-20T01:56:49ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Global Health2059-79082019-03-014210.1136/bmjgh-2018-001335Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling studyDavid Watkins0Jessica Hale1Brian Hutchinson2Ishu Kataria3Vasilis Kontis4Rachel Nugent5Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA2 Center for Tobacco Research, The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, Ohio, USACenter for Global Noncommunicable Diseases, RTI International, Seattle, Washington, USA3 Center for Global Noncommunicable Diseases, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USASchool of Public Health, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, UKCenter for Global NCDs, RTI International, Edmonds, Washington, USAIntroduction Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescents worldwide.Methods We identified six interventions targeted at adolescent tobacco smoking, heavy episodic drinking and obesity and supported by effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence. Based on a population-level cohort of adolescents in 70 representative countries, we assessed the global mortality consequences of fully implementing these interventions over 2020–2070 using the potential impact fraction approach. We calculated the economic benefits of reduced mortality and estimated the required financial costs, discounting both at 3% annually. We also conducted best-case and worst-case scenario analyses.Results Full implementation of these interventions worldwide could avert nearly 10% of premature deaths among this cohort, translating to about US$400 billion in cumulative economic benefits. Cumulatively, the required costs would be about US$85 billion, suggesting that every US$1 of public money invested would generate US$5 in increased human capital. Tobacco taxes generally conferred the highest economic returns; however, an in-depth analysis of three countries illustrated the potential for different priorities, such as alcohol control, to emerge.Conclusion From a life course perspective, implementation of a package of interventions to reduce NCD risk among adolescents worldwide would substantially reduce premature mortality at reasonable costs. Our analysis illustrates the importance of integrating NCD prevention policies into the emerging global agenda for adolescent health and well-being.https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/2/e001335.full
spellingShingle David Watkins
Jessica Hale
Brian Hutchinson
Ishu Kataria
Vasilis Kontis
Rachel Nugent
Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
BMJ Global Health
title Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
title_full Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
title_fullStr Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
title_short Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
title_sort investing in non communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide a modelling study
url https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/2/e001335.full
work_keys_str_mv AT davidwatkins investinginnoncommunicablediseaseriskfactorcontrolamongadolescentsworldwideamodellingstudy
AT jessicahale investinginnoncommunicablediseaseriskfactorcontrolamongadolescentsworldwideamodellingstudy
AT brianhutchinson investinginnoncommunicablediseaseriskfactorcontrolamongadolescentsworldwideamodellingstudy
AT ishukataria investinginnoncommunicablediseaseriskfactorcontrolamongadolescentsworldwideamodellingstudy
AT vasiliskontis investinginnoncommunicablediseaseriskfactorcontrolamongadolescentsworldwideamodellingstudy
AT rachelnugent investinginnoncommunicablediseaseriskfactorcontrolamongadolescentsworldwideamodellingstudy