Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study
Introduction Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescent...
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| Format: | Article |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2019-03-01
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| Series: | BMJ Global Health |
| Online Access: | https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/2/e001335.full |
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| author | David Watkins Jessica Hale Brian Hutchinson Ishu Kataria Vasilis Kontis Rachel Nugent |
| author_facet | David Watkins Jessica Hale Brian Hutchinson Ishu Kataria Vasilis Kontis Rachel Nugent |
| author_sort | David Watkins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescents worldwide.Methods We identified six interventions targeted at adolescent tobacco smoking, heavy episodic drinking and obesity and supported by effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence. Based on a population-level cohort of adolescents in 70 representative countries, we assessed the global mortality consequences of fully implementing these interventions over 2020–2070 using the potential impact fraction approach. We calculated the economic benefits of reduced mortality and estimated the required financial costs, discounting both at 3% annually. We also conducted best-case and worst-case scenario analyses.Results Full implementation of these interventions worldwide could avert nearly 10% of premature deaths among this cohort, translating to about US$400 billion in cumulative economic benefits. Cumulatively, the required costs would be about US$85 billion, suggesting that every US$1 of public money invested would generate US$5 in increased human capital. Tobacco taxes generally conferred the highest economic returns; however, an in-depth analysis of three countries illustrated the potential for different priorities, such as alcohol control, to emerge.Conclusion From a life course perspective, implementation of a package of interventions to reduce NCD risk among adolescents worldwide would substantially reduce premature mortality at reasonable costs. Our analysis illustrates the importance of integrating NCD prevention policies into the emerging global agenda for adolescent health and well-being. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7a3ab7cdb4c842a2ac110040ecc73716 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2059-7908 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Global Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-7a3ab7cdb4c842a2ac110040ecc737162025-08-20T01:56:49ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Global Health2059-79082019-03-014210.1136/bmjgh-2018-001335Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling studyDavid Watkins0Jessica Hale1Brian Hutchinson2Ishu Kataria3Vasilis Kontis4Rachel Nugent5Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA2 Center for Tobacco Research, The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, Ohio, USACenter for Global Noncommunicable Diseases, RTI International, Seattle, Washington, USA3 Center for Global Noncommunicable Diseases, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USASchool of Public Health, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, UKCenter for Global NCDs, RTI International, Edmonds, Washington, USAIntroduction Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescents worldwide.Methods We identified six interventions targeted at adolescent tobacco smoking, heavy episodic drinking and obesity and supported by effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence. Based on a population-level cohort of adolescents in 70 representative countries, we assessed the global mortality consequences of fully implementing these interventions over 2020–2070 using the potential impact fraction approach. We calculated the economic benefits of reduced mortality and estimated the required financial costs, discounting both at 3% annually. We also conducted best-case and worst-case scenario analyses.Results Full implementation of these interventions worldwide could avert nearly 10% of premature deaths among this cohort, translating to about US$400 billion in cumulative economic benefits. Cumulatively, the required costs would be about US$85 billion, suggesting that every US$1 of public money invested would generate US$5 in increased human capital. Tobacco taxes generally conferred the highest economic returns; however, an in-depth analysis of three countries illustrated the potential for different priorities, such as alcohol control, to emerge.Conclusion From a life course perspective, implementation of a package of interventions to reduce NCD risk among adolescents worldwide would substantially reduce premature mortality at reasonable costs. Our analysis illustrates the importance of integrating NCD prevention policies into the emerging global agenda for adolescent health and well-being.https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/2/e001335.full |
| spellingShingle | David Watkins Jessica Hale Brian Hutchinson Ishu Kataria Vasilis Kontis Rachel Nugent Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study BMJ Global Health |
| title | Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study |
| title_full | Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study |
| title_short | Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study |
| title_sort | investing in non communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide a modelling study |
| url | https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/2/e001335.full |
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