Equilibrium line altitudes, accumulation areas and the vulnerability of glaciers in Alaska
The accumulation area ratio (AAR) of a glacier reflects its current state of equilibrium, or disequilibrium, with climate and its vulnerability to future climate change. Here, we present an inventory of glacier-specific annual accumulation areas and equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for over 3000 gl...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000650/type/journal_article |
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| Summary: | The accumulation area ratio (AAR) of a glacier reflects its current state of equilibrium, or disequilibrium, with climate and its vulnerability to future climate change. Here, we present an inventory of glacier-specific annual accumulation areas and equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for over 3000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada (88% of the regional glacier area) from 2018 to 2022 derived from Sentinel-2 imagery. We find that the 5 year average AAR of the entire study area is 0.41, with an inter-annual range of 0.25–0.49. More than 1000 glaciers, representing 8% of the investigated glacier area, were found to have effectively no accumulation area. Summer temperature and winter precipitation from ERA5-Land explained nearly 50% of the inter-annual ELA variability across the entire study region (
${R}^2=0.47$). An analysis of future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5) projects that ELAs will rise by ∼170 m on average by the end of the 21st century. Such changes would result in a loss of 25% of the modern accumulation area, leaving a total of 1900 glaciers (22% of the investigated area) with no accumulation area. These results highlight the current state of glacier disequilibrium with modern climate, as well as glacier vulnerability to projected future warming. |
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| ISSN: | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |