A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile

When completed, the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River will be the largest hydropower dam in Africa. The consequent reduction of sediment fluxes to the lower Blue Nile by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to impact agricultural production, river channel morphology, and downs...

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Main Authors: Gofran Ahmed, Alessandro Cattapan, Amgad Omer, Yasir Mohamed
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-08-01
Series:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004100
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author Gofran Ahmed
Alessandro Cattapan
Amgad Omer
Yasir Mohamed
author_facet Gofran Ahmed
Alessandro Cattapan
Amgad Omer
Yasir Mohamed
author_sort Gofran Ahmed
collection DOAJ
description When completed, the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River will be the largest hydropower dam in Africa. The consequent reduction of sediment fluxes to the lower Blue Nile by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to impact agricultural production, river channel morphology, and downstream reservoirs’ management. Due to its vicinity, Roseires Dam is expected to be the most affected. This study assesses sedimentation in the GERD and its impact on Roseires sedimentation. A novel approach was used, combining flow velocities from a 2D hydrodynamic model (Delft3D) with empirical trap efficiency (TE) formulas by Churchill and Tan. The operational rules of both dams were considered in the TE calculation. Results were verified using Roseires bathymetric surveys. The Blue Nile sediment load was estimated using historical discharge and sediment concentration data (1981–2022) and a data-driven model (ANN) to fill in missing sediment records. Churchill and Tan formulas showed different responses to reservoir capacity and inflow variations, with long-term TE estimates of 92 % (Tan) and 97 % (Churchill). GERD’s annual storage loss was calculated at 0.28 % (189 Mm³/year). Roseires’s annual storage loss was estimated at 0.26 % before the GERD and is projected to drop to 0.01 % after GERD completion.
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spelling doaj-art-79c6b8be2a5d4ee4afcc0bd072d39b8b2025-08-20T02:50:03ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010258510.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102585A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue NileGofran Ahmed0Alessandro Cattapan1Amgad Omer2Yasir Mohamed3Chemical Engineering Department, University of Khartoum, Nile Street, PO Box 321, Khartoum, Sudan; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, Delft 2611 AX, the Netherlands; Correspondence to: Mina krusemanstraat 176, Delft 2614 JK, the Netherlands.IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, Delft 2611 AX, the NetherlandsDeltares, PO Box 177, Delft 2600 MH, the NetherlandsIHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, Delft 2611 AX, the NetherlandsWhen completed, the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River will be the largest hydropower dam in Africa. The consequent reduction of sediment fluxes to the lower Blue Nile by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to impact agricultural production, river channel morphology, and downstream reservoirs’ management. Due to its vicinity, Roseires Dam is expected to be the most affected. This study assesses sedimentation in the GERD and its impact on Roseires sedimentation. A novel approach was used, combining flow velocities from a 2D hydrodynamic model (Delft3D) with empirical trap efficiency (TE) formulas by Churchill and Tan. The operational rules of both dams were considered in the TE calculation. Results were verified using Roseires bathymetric surveys. The Blue Nile sediment load was estimated using historical discharge and sediment concentration data (1981–2022) and a data-driven model (ANN) to fill in missing sediment records. Churchill and Tan formulas showed different responses to reservoir capacity and inflow variations, with long-term TE estimates of 92 % (Tan) and 97 % (Churchill). GERD’s annual storage loss was calculated at 0.28 % (189 Mm³/year). Roseires’s annual storage loss was estimated at 0.26 % before the GERD and is projected to drop to 0.01 % after GERD completion.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004100Reservoir sedimentationGERD-Grand Ethiopian Renaissance DamSedimentation rateBlue Nile sediment loadRoseires trap efficiency
spellingShingle Gofran Ahmed
Alessandro Cattapan
Amgad Omer
Yasir Mohamed
A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Reservoir sedimentation
GERD-Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Sedimentation rate
Blue Nile sediment load
Roseires trap efficiency
title A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile
title_full A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile
title_fullStr A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile
title_full_unstemmed A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile
title_short A hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams: case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Roseires Dam across the Blue Nile
title_sort hybrid approach to evaluate sedimentation in large dams case study of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam and roseires dam across the blue nile
topic Reservoir sedimentation
GERD-Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Sedimentation rate
Blue Nile sediment load
Roseires trap efficiency
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004100
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