Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves
Abstract Conserving Southeast Asia’s mangroves is a vital natural climate solution, and their protection could be supported by blue carbon credits. However, such financing strategies expose conservation efforts to socioeconomic and climate change permanence risks. Here, we evaluate the potential imp...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02035-4 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832571244234407936 |
|---|---|
| author | Valerie Kwan Daniel A. Friess Tasya Vadya Sarira Yiwen Zeng |
| author_facet | Valerie Kwan Daniel A. Friess Tasya Vadya Sarira Yiwen Zeng |
| author_sort | Valerie Kwan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Conserving Southeast Asia’s mangroves is a vital natural climate solution, and their protection could be supported by blue carbon credits. However, such financing strategies expose conservation efforts to socioeconomic and climate change permanence risks. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of permanence risks on the ability of blue carbon financing to safeguard mangroves. Using opportunity costs associated with oil palm, rice and aquaculture land use conversion as indicators of socioeconomic risks, and predicted cyclones and sea-level rise as indicators of climate change risks, we find that 85% of mangroves are likely to experience some form of permanence risk. Diverse funding sources and risk mitigation measures need to be contextualised in a long time horizon to maintain conservation viability into the future. Understanding how these risks interact and affect mangrove conservation efforts over timescales relevant to carbon permanence is key to minimizing risks and ensuring positive socio-ecological outcomes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7962aff7e58743ec83d300dfe020336f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-7962aff7e58743ec83d300dfe020336f2025-02-02T12:44:14ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-01-01611810.1038/s43247-025-02035-4Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangrovesValerie Kwan0Daniel A. Friess1Tasya Vadya Sarira2Yiwen Zeng3School of the Environment, The University of QueenslandDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane UniversityNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University Marine LabAsian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological UniversityAbstract Conserving Southeast Asia’s mangroves is a vital natural climate solution, and their protection could be supported by blue carbon credits. However, such financing strategies expose conservation efforts to socioeconomic and climate change permanence risks. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of permanence risks on the ability of blue carbon financing to safeguard mangroves. Using opportunity costs associated with oil palm, rice and aquaculture land use conversion as indicators of socioeconomic risks, and predicted cyclones and sea-level rise as indicators of climate change risks, we find that 85% of mangroves are likely to experience some form of permanence risk. Diverse funding sources and risk mitigation measures need to be contextualised in a long time horizon to maintain conservation viability into the future. Understanding how these risks interact and affect mangrove conservation efforts over timescales relevant to carbon permanence is key to minimizing risks and ensuring positive socio-ecological outcomes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02035-4 |
| spellingShingle | Valerie Kwan Daniel A. Friess Tasya Vadya Sarira Yiwen Zeng Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves |
| title_full | Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves |
| title_fullStr | Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves |
| title_full_unstemmed | Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves |
| title_short | Permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard Southeast Asian mangroves |
| title_sort | permanence risks limit blue carbon financing strategies to safeguard southeast asian mangroves |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02035-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT valeriekwan permanenceriskslimitbluecarbonfinancingstrategiestosafeguardsoutheastasianmangroves AT danielafriess permanenceriskslimitbluecarbonfinancingstrategiestosafeguardsoutheastasianmangroves AT tasyavadyasarira permanenceriskslimitbluecarbonfinancingstrategiestosafeguardsoutheastasianmangroves AT yiwenzeng permanenceriskslimitbluecarbonfinancingstrategiestosafeguardsoutheastasianmangroves |