Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century
In light of the current rise of authoritarian regimes and the anti-liberal tendencies in some established democracies, understanding the dynamic and statistical properties of political regimes is of critical importance. Despite their relevance, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of these dynami...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
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| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250457 |
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| author | Paula Pirker-Diaz Matthew C. Wilson Soenke Beier Karoline Wiesner |
| author_facet | Paula Pirker-Diaz Matthew C. Wilson Soenke Beier Karoline Wiesner |
| author_sort | Paula Pirker-Diaz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In light of the current rise of authoritarian regimes and the anti-liberal tendencies in some established democracies, understanding the dynamic and statistical properties of political regimes is of critical importance. Despite their relevance, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of these dynamics on a historical scale remains largely unexplored, and the notion that democratization is an irreversible process has gone mostly unchallenged. This study provides a rigorous and quantitative analysis of political regimes worldwide by examining changes in freedoms of expression, association and electoral quality throughout the twentieth century. Utilizing the multidimensional V-Dem dataset, which covers over 170 countries across more than a century, alongside tools from statistical physics, we demonstrate that historical political regime dynamics follow a scaling law, which is a hallmark of diffusion. We identify three distinct dynamical regimes in the data: super-diffusive behaviour in destabilizing autocracies, random-walk dynamics in hybrid regimes and sub-diffusive behaviour in democracies and stable autocracies. Using these results, we also offer a novel perspective on the propensity of civil conflict. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7913796f8dde4e23b724b1928758ef0f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-7913796f8dde4e23b724b1928758ef0f2025-08-20T03:44:00ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032025-08-0112810.1098/rsos.250457Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth centuryPaula Pirker-Diaz0Matthew C. Wilson1Soenke Beier2Karoline Wiesner3Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Political Science, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USAInstitute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyIn light of the current rise of authoritarian regimes and the anti-liberal tendencies in some established democracies, understanding the dynamic and statistical properties of political regimes is of critical importance. Despite their relevance, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of these dynamics on a historical scale remains largely unexplored, and the notion that democratization is an irreversible process has gone mostly unchallenged. This study provides a rigorous and quantitative analysis of political regimes worldwide by examining changes in freedoms of expression, association and electoral quality throughout the twentieth century. Utilizing the multidimensional V-Dem dataset, which covers over 170 countries across more than a century, alongside tools from statistical physics, we demonstrate that historical political regime dynamics follow a scaling law, which is a hallmark of diffusion. We identify three distinct dynamical regimes in the data: super-diffusive behaviour in destabilizing autocracies, random-walk dynamics in hybrid regimes and sub-diffusive behaviour in democracies and stable autocracies. Using these results, we also offer a novel perspective on the propensity of civil conflict.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250457politicsdynamicsregime transformationdiffusion mapanomalous diffusion |
| spellingShingle | Paula Pirker-Diaz Matthew C. Wilson Soenke Beier Karoline Wiesner Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century Royal Society Open Science politics dynamics regime transformation diffusion map anomalous diffusion |
| title | Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century |
| title_full | Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century |
| title_fullStr | Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century |
| title_short | Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century |
| title_sort | scaling laws of political regime dynamics stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century |
| topic | politics dynamics regime transformation diffusion map anomalous diffusion |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250457 |
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