Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China
Abstract Although previous studies suggest anthropogenic forcing may influence extreme precipitation probability, few have specifically investigated the human influence on moisture transport. Here, we leverage the 2023 record‐breaking summer precipitation in Northern China (NC) to address this gap....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113900 |
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| author | G. Song Y. Sun |
| author_facet | G. Song Y. Sun |
| author_sort | G. Song |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Although previous studies suggest anthropogenic forcing may influence extreme precipitation probability, few have specifically investigated the human influence on moisture transport. Here, we leverage the 2023 record‐breaking summer precipitation in Northern China (NC) to address this gap. Combining station observation with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs, we demonstrate that the 2023‐like heavy precipitation event was exacerbated by anthropogenic enhanced moisture transport. External forcing increased the probability of extreme southeasterly moisture transport by approximately 1.3 (90% confidence interval: 1.0–1.8) times. Moreover, the total anthropogenic forcing likely increased the probability of similar precipitation events at least 1.7 times (1.0–3.1), with both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols contributing positively. As greenhouse gases concentrations rise and anthropogenic warming intensifies, the frequency of similar extreme precipitation events in NC is projected to increase further. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7896d7218a2e44d287c87fd33fb73064 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-7896d7218a2e44d287c87fd33fb730642025-08-20T03:41:54ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113900Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern ChinaG. Song0Y. Sun1State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/China Meteorological Administration Climate Studies Key Laboratory National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaAbstract Although previous studies suggest anthropogenic forcing may influence extreme precipitation probability, few have specifically investigated the human influence on moisture transport. Here, we leverage the 2023 record‐breaking summer precipitation in Northern China (NC) to address this gap. Combining station observation with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs, we demonstrate that the 2023‐like heavy precipitation event was exacerbated by anthropogenic enhanced moisture transport. External forcing increased the probability of extreme southeasterly moisture transport by approximately 1.3 (90% confidence interval: 1.0–1.8) times. Moreover, the total anthropogenic forcing likely increased the probability of similar precipitation events at least 1.7 times (1.0–3.1), with both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols contributing positively. As greenhouse gases concentrations rise and anthropogenic warming intensifies, the frequency of similar extreme precipitation events in NC is projected to increase further.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113900anthropogenic forcingmoisture transportextreme precipitationattribution analysis |
| spellingShingle | G. Song Y. Sun Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China Geophysical Research Letters anthropogenic forcing moisture transport extreme precipitation attribution analysis |
| title | Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China |
| title_full | Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China |
| title_fullStr | Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China |
| title_short | Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China |
| title_sort | human enhanced moisture transport exacerbated the extreme precipitation in northern china |
| topic | anthropogenic forcing moisture transport extreme precipitation attribution analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113900 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gsong humanenhancedmoisturetransportexacerbatedtheextremeprecipitationinnorthernchina AT ysun humanenhancedmoisturetransportexacerbatedtheextremeprecipitationinnorthernchina |