Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023)
Lahore, a UNESCO city in Pakistan, is projected to rise from the sixth to the third fastest-growing city worldwide by 2030. This rapid urbanization challenges its commitment to cultural and ecological preservation, positioning it as an international case study in urbanization research. Thus, the Lah...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Urban Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585624001584 |
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| author | Sona Karim Yaning Chen Patient Mindje Kayumba Ishfaq Ahmad Hassan Iqbal |
| author_facet | Sona Karim Yaning Chen Patient Mindje Kayumba Ishfaq Ahmad Hassan Iqbal |
| author_sort | Sona Karim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Lahore, a UNESCO city in Pakistan, is projected to rise from the sixth to the third fastest-growing city worldwide by 2030. This rapid urbanization challenges its commitment to cultural and ecological preservation, positioning it as an international case study in urbanization research. Thus, the Lahore Development Authority emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of urban dynamics to support effective planning and achieve sustainability targets, including Sustainable Development Goal 11. To contribute, we used high-resolution Landsat imagery to analyze the spatial diverging patterns of urban extent from 1998 to 2023 in Lahore. Additionally, we employed a Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain model to project urban growth over the next 25 years. As of 2023, we estimated that approximately 53.6% (92,660.9 ha) of Lahore is urbanized, while 46.4% remains unaffected by urban activities. Projections for 2048 suggest that the urban footprint may expand to 75.8% (131,031.5 ha), leaving only 24.2% of the area free from urbanization. Our analysis also revealed divergent urban expansion patterns significantly impacting local ecosystems. It showed a 31% reduction in inland water bodies, a 39.8% loss of vegetation, and a 60.1% decrease in sparse areas, all attributable to urban development. As natural landscapes are replaced by built environments, Lahore is likely facing increasing challenges that could jeopardize the city's green growth and urban ecological balance. Therefore, we urge land use managers, urban planners, and stakeholders in Pakistan to promote initiatives that enhance urban resilience, particularly through smart city planning and creating green and blue spaces. By focusing on Lahore, this study also provides valuable insights that can serve as a benchmark for other rapidly urbanizing cities facing similar challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-77ff669aa36c4320bcaa49d6dd8191ee |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2226-5856 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Urban Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-77ff669aa36c4320bcaa49d6dd8191ee2025-08-20T03:49:46ZengElsevierJournal of Urban Management2226-58562025-06-0114257758910.1016/j.jum.2024.11.012Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023)Sona Karim0Yaning Chen1Patient Mindje Kayumba2Ishfaq Ahmad3Hassan Iqbal4State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; University of Lay Adventist of Kigali, UNILAK, RwandaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Key Laboratory of Ocean and Marginal Sea Geology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, ChinaLahore, a UNESCO city in Pakistan, is projected to rise from the sixth to the third fastest-growing city worldwide by 2030. This rapid urbanization challenges its commitment to cultural and ecological preservation, positioning it as an international case study in urbanization research. Thus, the Lahore Development Authority emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of urban dynamics to support effective planning and achieve sustainability targets, including Sustainable Development Goal 11. To contribute, we used high-resolution Landsat imagery to analyze the spatial diverging patterns of urban extent from 1998 to 2023 in Lahore. Additionally, we employed a Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain model to project urban growth over the next 25 years. As of 2023, we estimated that approximately 53.6% (92,660.9 ha) of Lahore is urbanized, while 46.4% remains unaffected by urban activities. Projections for 2048 suggest that the urban footprint may expand to 75.8% (131,031.5 ha), leaving only 24.2% of the area free from urbanization. Our analysis also revealed divergent urban expansion patterns significantly impacting local ecosystems. It showed a 31% reduction in inland water bodies, a 39.8% loss of vegetation, and a 60.1% decrease in sparse areas, all attributable to urban development. As natural landscapes are replaced by built environments, Lahore is likely facing increasing challenges that could jeopardize the city's green growth and urban ecological balance. Therefore, we urge land use managers, urban planners, and stakeholders in Pakistan to promote initiatives that enhance urban resilience, particularly through smart city planning and creating green and blue spaces. By focusing on Lahore, this study also provides valuable insights that can serve as a benchmark for other rapidly urbanizing cities facing similar challenges.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585624001584CA-MarkovLahore cityLand use changeRemote sensingUrbanization |
| spellingShingle | Sona Karim Yaning Chen Patient Mindje Kayumba Ishfaq Ahmad Hassan Iqbal Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023) Journal of Urban Management CA-Markov Lahore city Land use change Remote sensing Urbanization |
| title | Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023) |
| title_full | Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023) |
| title_fullStr | Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023) |
| title_short | Comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in Lahore, Pakistan (1998–2023) |
| title_sort | comprehensive geospatial analysis of urban expansion dynamic in lahore pakistan 1998 2023 |
| topic | CA-Markov Lahore city Land use change Remote sensing Urbanization |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585624001584 |
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