Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin
Based on the daily precipitation data of 224 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin for a total of 59 years from 1960 to 2018,the Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K) and linear fitting method are used to analyze the temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze Riv...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Editorial Office of Pearl River
2024-01-01
|
| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.03.005 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841530676944306176 |
|---|---|
| author | AI Jiaqi ZHANG Hairong GU Xuezhi XIN Qian CAO Hui BAO Zhengfeng YE Lei |
| author_facet | AI Jiaqi ZHANG Hairong GU Xuezhi XIN Qian CAO Hui BAO Zhengfeng YE Lei |
| author_sort | AI Jiaqi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the daily precipitation data of 224 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin for a total of 59 years from 1960 to 2018,the Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K) and linear fitting method are used to analyze the temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.The most applicable method for the parameter estimation of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) in the Yangtze River Basin is determined,and the GEV tail characteristics are analyzed,so as to resolve the spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.The results show that ① the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is generally on an upward trend,and the areas with upward-trending extreme precipitation are mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The stations with the fastest growth rates of extreme precipitation levels are mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the extreme precipitation levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin may further increase in the future. In addition,the frequency of heavy rainfall and flooding may increase;② the L-Moment method is more suitable for the estimation of the GEV distribution parameters and is more stable for extreme precipitation series with larger precipitation levels.The proportion of stations with extreme precipitation series distribution of Fréchet is about 70%,indicating that most stations in the Yangtze River Basin have obvious thick tail characteristics of extreme precipitation distribution,and the extreme precipitation level fluctuates greatly.③ Extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under different return periods shows obvious spatial distribution differences,and the extreme precipitation levels of different extreme precipitation series all show a gradual increasing trend from upstream to downstream. The extreme precipitation levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have a fast growth rate, large fluctuations,and high precipitation levels in different return periods.Therefore,the flood control of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River needs to be further strengthened. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-77f17b0be9104c828d62321f39086d02 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-77f17b0be9104c828d62321f39086d022025-01-15T03:00:37ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352024-01-014554032056Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River BasinAI JiaqiZHANG HairongGU XuezhiXIN QianCAO HuiBAO ZhengfengYE LeiBased on the daily precipitation data of 224 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin for a total of 59 years from 1960 to 2018,the Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K) and linear fitting method are used to analyze the temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.The most applicable method for the parameter estimation of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) in the Yangtze River Basin is determined,and the GEV tail characteristics are analyzed,so as to resolve the spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin.The results show that ① the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is generally on an upward trend,and the areas with upward-trending extreme precipitation are mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The stations with the fastest growth rates of extreme precipitation levels are mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the extreme precipitation levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin may further increase in the future. In addition,the frequency of heavy rainfall and flooding may increase;② the L-Moment method is more suitable for the estimation of the GEV distribution parameters and is more stable for extreme precipitation series with larger precipitation levels.The proportion of stations with extreme precipitation series distribution of Fréchet is about 70%,indicating that most stations in the Yangtze River Basin have obvious thick tail characteristics of extreme precipitation distribution,and the extreme precipitation level fluctuates greatly.③ Extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under different return periods shows obvious spatial distribution differences,and the extreme precipitation levels of different extreme precipitation series all show a gradual increasing trend from upstream to downstream. The extreme precipitation levels in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have a fast growth rate, large fluctuations,and high precipitation levels in different return periods.Therefore,the flood control of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River needs to be further strengthened.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.03.005extreme precipitation indexextreme precipitationparameter estimationYangtze River Basin |
| spellingShingle | AI Jiaqi ZHANG Hairong GU Xuezhi XIN Qian CAO Hui BAO Zhengfeng YE Lei Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin Renmin Zhujiang extreme precipitation index extreme precipitation parameter estimation Yangtze River Basin |
| title | Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin |
| title_full | Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin |
| title_short | Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Yangtze River Basin |
| title_sort | analysis of spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation characteristics in yangtze river basin |
| topic | extreme precipitation index extreme precipitation parameter estimation Yangtze River Basin |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.03.005 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aijiaqi analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin AT zhanghairong analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin AT guxuezhi analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin AT xinqian analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin AT caohui analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin AT baozhengfeng analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin AT yelei analysisofspatiotemporalvariationofextremeprecipitationcharacteristicsinyangtzeriverbasin |