Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background Stroke is a pressing public health issue worldwide. This study aimed to forecast the future temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the global stroke burden. Methods and Results Global data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability‐adjusted life years between 199...
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| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease |
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| Online Access: | https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.124.036142 |
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| author | Yiran Cheng Yongqi Lin Hujuan Shi Mingmei Cheng Baoliang Zhang Xiaofeng Liu Chuan Shi Yanzhong Wang Chunhua Xia Wanqing Xie |
| author_facet | Yiran Cheng Yongqi Lin Hujuan Shi Mingmei Cheng Baoliang Zhang Xiaofeng Liu Chuan Shi Yanzhong Wang Chunhua Xia Wanqing Xie |
| author_sort | Yiran Cheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Stroke is a pressing public health issue worldwide. This study aimed to forecast the future temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the global stroke burden. Methods and Results Global data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability‐adjusted life years between 1990 and 2021 were obtained from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) Study 2021. The temporal trends of stroke burden were estimated using various regression models. Gross domestic product per capita was adopted as a predictor in the model to consider the impact of economic development on stroke burden. Projections of stroke burden up to 2050 were generated using the optimal model selected based on the Akaike information criterion, encompassing global, World Bank income levels, national levels, and sex‐age groups. In 2050, we projected 21.43 million stroke cases, 159.31 million survivors, 12.05 million deaths, and 224.86 million disability‐adjusted life years due to stroke globally. From 2021 to 2050, there was a declining trend in the global age‐adjusted stroke rates, with −7% in incidence, −4% in prevalence, −28% in deaths, and −28% in disability‐adjusted life years. Upper‐middle‐income countries were projected to have the most severe stroke burden, followed by lower‐middle‐income countries, low‐income countries, and high‐income countries. The stroke burden in over half of the 204 countries and territories was expected to be alleviated from 2022 to 2050. Men and older women worldwide bear higher burden. Conclusions Stroke remains a serious global health challenge, especially in low‐income and middle‐income countries. Targeted implementation of prevention and interventions is imperative across diverse demographic groups. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-76c7cfe3d03e4c7782d2f99fe7a28d33 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2047-9980 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease |
| spelling | doaj-art-76c7cfe3d03e4c7782d2f99fe7a28d332024-12-03T10:06:25ZengWileyJournal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease2047-99802024-12-01132310.1161/JAHA.124.036142Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Yiran Cheng0Yongqi Lin1Hujuan Shi2Mingmei Cheng3Baoliang Zhang4Xiaofeng Liu5Chuan Shi6Yanzhong Wang7Chunhua Xia8Wanqing Xie9Department of Psychology, School of Mental Health and Psychological Sciences Anhui Medical University Hefei ChinaDepartment of Intelligent Medical Engineering, School of Biomedical Engineering Anhui Medical University Hefei ChinaDepartment of Intelligent Medical Engineering, School of Biomedical Engineering Anhui Medical University Hefei ChinaDepartment of Intelligent Medical Engineering, School of Biomedical Engineering Anhui Medical University Hefei ChinaDepartment of Intelligent Medical Engineering, School of Biomedical Engineering Anhui Medical University Hefei ChinaDepartment of Radiology & Biomedical Imaging and Biomedical Informatics & Data Science Yale University New Haven CT USAPeking University Sixth Hospital Beijing ChinaSchool of Life Course and Population Health Sciences King’s College London London United KingdomMedical Image Center The Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University/ Hefei No1. People’s Hospital (Binhu Campus) Hefei ChinaDepartment of Psychology, School of Mental Health and Psychological Sciences Anhui Medical University Hefei ChinaBackground Stroke is a pressing public health issue worldwide. This study aimed to forecast the future temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the global stroke burden. Methods and Results Global data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability‐adjusted life years between 1990 and 2021 were obtained from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) Study 2021. The temporal trends of stroke burden were estimated using various regression models. Gross domestic product per capita was adopted as a predictor in the model to consider the impact of economic development on stroke burden. Projections of stroke burden up to 2050 were generated using the optimal model selected based on the Akaike information criterion, encompassing global, World Bank income levels, national levels, and sex‐age groups. In 2050, we projected 21.43 million stroke cases, 159.31 million survivors, 12.05 million deaths, and 224.86 million disability‐adjusted life years due to stroke globally. From 2021 to 2050, there was a declining trend in the global age‐adjusted stroke rates, with −7% in incidence, −4% in prevalence, −28% in deaths, and −28% in disability‐adjusted life years. Upper‐middle‐income countries were projected to have the most severe stroke burden, followed by lower‐middle‐income countries, low‐income countries, and high‐income countries. The stroke burden in over half of the 204 countries and territories was expected to be alleviated from 2022 to 2050. Men and older women worldwide bear higher burden. Conclusions Stroke remains a serious global health challenge, especially in low‐income and middle‐income countries. Targeted implementation of prevention and interventions is imperative across diverse demographic groups.https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.124.036142epidemiologyGlobal Burden of Diseasegross domestic productprojectionsstroke |
| spellingShingle | Yiran Cheng Yongqi Lin Hujuan Shi Mingmei Cheng Baoliang Zhang Xiaofeng Liu Chuan Shi Yanzhong Wang Chunhua Xia Wanqing Xie Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease epidemiology Global Burden of Disease gross domestic product projections stroke |
| title | Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Projections of the Stroke Burden at the Global, Regional, and National Levels up to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | projections of the stroke burden at the global regional and national levels up to 2050 based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | epidemiology Global Burden of Disease gross domestic product projections stroke |
| url | https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.124.036142 |
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