Radial Rainfall Pattern Changes of Intense Over‐Ocean Tropical Cyclones Under Global Warming: Insights From an MRI HighRes CMIP6 Simulation

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are charact...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jianan Chen, Ralf Toumi, Lujia Zhang, Mengqian Lu, Dazhi Xi, Xiaoming Shi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116146
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Summary:Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center To, maximum rainfall Tm, radius of maximum rainfall Rm, and e‐folding radius Re. We find Tm strongly correlates (r=0.8) with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across different intensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean Tm and To increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while Rm and Re shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, Tm exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007