The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades
Compound climate extremes severely impact crops more than individual events. Understanding historical changes in compound extreme events and their drivers is crucial for managing climate risks and protecting crop survival. Using a hybrid biophysical-statistical modeling approach, we investigated the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000519 |
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| author | Siyi Li Bin Wang De Li Liu Chao Chen Puyu Feng Alfredo Huete Keyu Xiang Qiang Yu |
| author_facet | Siyi Li Bin Wang De Li Liu Chao Chen Puyu Feng Alfredo Huete Keyu Xiang Qiang Yu |
| author_sort | Siyi Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Compound climate extremes severely impact crops more than individual events. Understanding historical changes in compound extreme events and their drivers is crucial for managing climate risks and protecting crop survival. Using a hybrid biophysical-statistical modeling approach, we investigated the connections between large-scale climate drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and compound drought and extreme temperature (DET) across Australia's wheat belt from 1900 to 2020. DET in eastern Australia's wheat belt was more responsive to ENSO/IOD compared to the west. El Niño and positive IOD phases intensified DET and increased the probability of high-intensity DET, whereas La Niña and negative IOD reduced them. Probabilities of high-intensity DET have exhibited a temporal increase, during the strong El Niño phase and the positive IOD phase. Our findings highlight the need to assess the spatial-temporal response of compound events to climate drivers for effective early warning and mitigation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-762f66916b17463d859c19b2a0b5ecb7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj-art-762f66916b17463d859c19b2a0b5ecb72025-08-20T03:49:50ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472025-09-014910079310.1016/j.wace.2025.100793The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decadesSiyi Li0Bin Wang1De Li Liu2Chao Chen3Puyu Feng4Alfredo Huete5Keyu Xiang6Qiang Yu7School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW, 2007, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, AustraliaNSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia; Gulbali Institute (Agriculture, Water and Environment), Charles Sturt University, Locked Bag 588, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2678, Australia; Corresponding author. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia.NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia; Gulbali Institute (Agriculture, Water and Environment), Charles Sturt University, Locked Bag 588, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2678, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia; Corresponding author. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia.CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, AustraliaCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, ChinaSchool of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW, 2007, AustraliaSchool of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW, 2007, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, AustraliaState Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, 712100, ChinaCompound climate extremes severely impact crops more than individual events. Understanding historical changes in compound extreme events and their drivers is crucial for managing climate risks and protecting crop survival. Using a hybrid biophysical-statistical modeling approach, we investigated the connections between large-scale climate drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and compound drought and extreme temperature (DET) across Australia's wheat belt from 1900 to 2020. DET in eastern Australia's wheat belt was more responsive to ENSO/IOD compared to the west. El Niño and positive IOD phases intensified DET and increased the probability of high-intensity DET, whereas La Niña and negative IOD reduced them. Probabilities of high-intensity DET have exhibited a temporal increase, during the strong El Niño phase and the positive IOD phase. Our findings highlight the need to assess the spatial-temporal response of compound events to climate drivers for effective early warning and mitigation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000519Compound drought and temperature eventsClimate driversWheatProbabilityComposite differencesENSO |
| spellingShingle | Siyi Li Bin Wang De Li Liu Chao Chen Puyu Feng Alfredo Huete Keyu Xiang Qiang Yu The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades Weather and Climate Extremes Compound drought and temperature events Climate drivers Wheat Probability Composite differences ENSO |
| title | The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades |
| title_full | The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades |
| title_fullStr | The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades |
| title_full_unstemmed | The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades |
| title_short | The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades |
| title_sort | contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades |
| topic | Compound drought and temperature events Climate drivers Wheat Probability Composite differences ENSO |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000519 |
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