Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century
Plateau icefields are large stores of fresh water, preconditioned to enhanced mass loss due to their gently sloping accumulation areas. Accurate modelling of their mass balance is therefore crucial for sea-level rise projections. Here, we use the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass-bala...
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Cambridge University Press
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000820/type/journal_article |
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| author | Ryan Nicholas Ing Jeremy Charles Ely Julie Margaret Jones Bethan Joan Davies |
| author_facet | Ryan Nicholas Ing Jeremy Charles Ely Julie Margaret Jones Bethan Joan Davies |
| author_sort | Ryan Nicholas Ing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Plateau icefields are large stores of fresh water, preconditioned to enhanced mass loss due to their gently sloping accumulation areas. Accurate modelling of their mass balance is therefore crucial for sea-level rise projections. Here, we use the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass-balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate historical and future mass balance of the Juneau Icefield, Alaska – a high elevation (>1200 m) plateau icefield. We force the model with dynamically downscaled climate simulations, for both past and future (RCP 8.5) conditions. The icefield's mass balance decreased from a mean of −0.22 ± 0.38 m w.e. a−1 (1981–2019) to −1.52 ± 0.27 m w.e. a−1 (2031–2060), with many glaciers shifting from positive to negative mass balances at the start of the 21st century. This mass loss is attributed to projected rising air temperatures and reduced snowfall, causing the equilibrium line altitude to rise and triggering albedo and melt-elevation feedbacks. These processes exacerbate melt, potentially leading to increased glacier disconnections at icefalls. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-762485c15c0743eea95734c85514d5d9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
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| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj-art-762485c15c0743eea95734c85514d5d92025-01-16T21:49:07ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522025-01-017110.1017/jog.2024.82Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st centuryRyan Nicholas Ing0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9767-3209Jeremy Charles Ely1Julie Margaret Jones2Bethan Joan Davies3School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UKDepartment of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UKDepartment of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UKSchool of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UKPlateau icefields are large stores of fresh water, preconditioned to enhanced mass loss due to their gently sloping accumulation areas. Accurate modelling of their mass balance is therefore crucial for sea-level rise projections. Here, we use the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass-balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate historical and future mass balance of the Juneau Icefield, Alaska – a high elevation (>1200 m) plateau icefield. We force the model with dynamically downscaled climate simulations, for both past and future (RCP 8.5) conditions. The icefield's mass balance decreased from a mean of −0.22 ± 0.38 m w.e. a−1 (1981–2019) to −1.52 ± 0.27 m w.e. a−1 (2031–2060), with many glaciers shifting from positive to negative mass balances at the start of the 21st century. This mass loss is attributed to projected rising air temperatures and reduced snowfall, causing the equilibrium line altitude to rise and triggering albedo and melt-elevation feedbacks. These processes exacerbate melt, potentially leading to increased glacier disconnections at icefalls.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000820/type/journal_articleGlacier mass balancemass-balance reconstructionmountain glaciers |
| spellingShingle | Ryan Nicholas Ing Jeremy Charles Ely Julie Margaret Jones Bethan Joan Davies Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century Journal of Glaciology Glacier mass balance mass-balance reconstruction mountain glaciers |
| title | Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century |
| title_full | Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century |
| title_fullStr | Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century |
| title_short | Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century |
| title_sort | surface mass balance modelling of the juneau icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid 21st century |
| topic | Glacier mass balance mass-balance reconstruction mountain glaciers |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000820/type/journal_article |
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