Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study
Background and Aims. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) of rectal cancer (RC) is associated with several factors. We aimed to build an efficient competing-risk nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict RC survival. Methods. Medical records of 8754 patients were collected from...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Gastroenterology Research and Practice |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9706732 |
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| author | Rui-zhe Zheng Jiang Xie Shui-qiang Zhang Wen Li Bo Dong Yin-wei Cong Zhi-qiang Wang |
| author_facet | Rui-zhe Zheng Jiang Xie Shui-qiang Zhang Wen Li Bo Dong Yin-wei Cong Zhi-qiang Wang |
| author_sort | Rui-zhe Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background and Aims. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) of rectal cancer (RC) is associated with several factors. We aimed to build an efficient competing-risk nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict RC survival. Methods. Medical records of 8754 patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, of 4895 patients from SEER during 2011–2014 and of 478 patients from an Eastern center as a development cohort, validation cohort, and test cohort, respectively. Univariate and multivariate competing-risk analyses were performed to build competing-risk nomogram for predicting the CSS of RC patients. Prediction efficacy was evaluated and compared with reference to the 8th TNM classification using the factor areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. Results. The competing-risk nomogram was based on 6 variables: size, M stage, LODDS, T stage, grade, and age. The competing-risk nomogram showed a higher AUC value in predicting the 5-year death rate due to RC than the 8th TNM stage in the development cohort (0.81 vs. 0.76), validation cohort (0.85 vs. 0.82), and test cohort (0.71 vs. 0.66). The competing-risk nomogram also showed a higher Brier score in predicting the 5-year death rate due to RC than the 8th TNM stage in the development cohort (0.120 vs. 0.127), validation cohort (0.123 vs. 0.128), and test cohort (0.202 vs. 0.226). Conclusion. We developed and validated a competing-risk nomogram for RC death, which could provide the probability of survival averting competing risk to facilitate clinical decision-making. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-760e8394530942e18e9cc917a9f68af1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1687-6121 1687-630X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Gastroenterology Research and Practice |
| spelling | doaj-art-760e8394530942e18e9cc917a9f68af12025-08-20T02:07:15ZengWileyGastroenterology Research and Practice1687-61211687-630X2020-01-01202010.1155/2020/97067329706732Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation StudyRui-zhe Zheng0Jiang Xie1Shui-qiang Zhang2Wen Li3Bo Dong4Yin-wei Cong5Zhi-qiang Wang6Department of General Surgery, Shanghai Tongren Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200336, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Shanghai Tongren Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200336, ChinaSchool of Engineering, Huzhou University, Huzhou 313000, ChinaCollege of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Shanghai Tongren Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200336, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Shanghai Tongren Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200336, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Shanghai Tongren Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200336, ChinaBackground and Aims. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) of rectal cancer (RC) is associated with several factors. We aimed to build an efficient competing-risk nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict RC survival. Methods. Medical records of 8754 patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, of 4895 patients from SEER during 2011–2014 and of 478 patients from an Eastern center as a development cohort, validation cohort, and test cohort, respectively. Univariate and multivariate competing-risk analyses were performed to build competing-risk nomogram for predicting the CSS of RC patients. Prediction efficacy was evaluated and compared with reference to the 8th TNM classification using the factor areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. Results. The competing-risk nomogram was based on 6 variables: size, M stage, LODDS, T stage, grade, and age. The competing-risk nomogram showed a higher AUC value in predicting the 5-year death rate due to RC than the 8th TNM stage in the development cohort (0.81 vs. 0.76), validation cohort (0.85 vs. 0.82), and test cohort (0.71 vs. 0.66). The competing-risk nomogram also showed a higher Brier score in predicting the 5-year death rate due to RC than the 8th TNM stage in the development cohort (0.120 vs. 0.127), validation cohort (0.123 vs. 0.128), and test cohort (0.202 vs. 0.226). Conclusion. We developed and validated a competing-risk nomogram for RC death, which could provide the probability of survival averting competing risk to facilitate clinical decision-making.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9706732 |
| spellingShingle | Rui-zhe Zheng Jiang Xie Shui-qiang Zhang Wen Li Bo Dong Yin-wei Cong Zhi-qiang Wang Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study Gastroenterology Research and Practice |
| title | Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study |
| title_full | Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study |
| title_fullStr | Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study |
| title_short | Log Odds of Positive Lymph Node- (LODDS-) Based Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Resected Rectal Cancer: A Development and Validation Study |
| title_sort | log odds of positive lymph node lodds based competing risk nomogram for predicting prognosis of resected rectal cancer a development and validation study |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9706732 |
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