Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province
In the pursuit of “carbon neutrality” and sustainable development, understanding the supply–demand dynamics and sustainability of regional carbon sequestration is vital for balancing ecological and economic growth. This study focus Guizhou Province, a typical karst region in southwestern China chara...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005321 |
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| author | Yuanhong Luo Yi Zhang Song Ma Chao Hou Limin Zhang |
| author_facet | Yuanhong Luo Yi Zhang Song Ma Chao Hou Limin Zhang |
| author_sort | Yuanhong Luo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the pursuit of “carbon neutrality” and sustainable development, understanding the supply–demand dynamics and sustainability of regional carbon sequestration is vital for balancing ecological and economic growth. This study focus Guizhou Province, a typical karst region in southwestern China characterized by ecological fragility and significant carbon sequestration potential, to analyze the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon sequestration supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. Using the InVEST model, carbon emission factor method, gravity center migration model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, we integrated multi-temporal land use and socio-economic data to assess the carbon sequestration supply–demand relationship. Key findings include: (1) Guizhou’ s carbon sequestration supply increased by 465 million tons, primarily from forestland and cultivated land, with a notable northwestward shift in supply. (2) Demand surged by 408 million tons, primarily driven by urban expansion in the northeast. (3) The carbon service supply and demandratio (CSSDR) declined from 0.53 to 0.44, revealing a shrinking surplus and significant spatial mismatch, particularly in urbanizing areas. These results provide a scientific basis for spatially differentiated land use policies and ecological compensation mechanisms, offering a replicable framework for other ecologically vulnerable regions pursuing carbon neutrality. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-75b44890b35b4b19a233db595f964fa2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-75b44890b35b4b19a233db595f964fa22025-08-20T02:29:10ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-06-0117511360210.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113602Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou ProvinceYuanhong Luo0Yi Zhang1Song Ma2Chao Hou3Limin Zhang4Guizhou Academy of Testing and Analysis, Guiyang 550000 Guizhou Province, ChinaGuizhou Academy of Testing and Analysis, Guiyang 550000 Guizhou Province, ChinaGuizhou Academy of Testing and Analysis, Guiyang 550000 Guizhou Province, ChinaCollege of Ecological and Environmental Engineering, Guizhou Minzu University, Guiyang 550025 Guizhou Province, ChinaGuizhou Academy of Testing and Analysis, Guiyang 550000 Guizhou Province, China; Corresponding author at: Guizhou Academy of Testing and Analysis, Baiyun District, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, 550000, PR China.In the pursuit of “carbon neutrality” and sustainable development, understanding the supply–demand dynamics and sustainability of regional carbon sequestration is vital for balancing ecological and economic growth. This study focus Guizhou Province, a typical karst region in southwestern China characterized by ecological fragility and significant carbon sequestration potential, to analyze the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon sequestration supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. Using the InVEST model, carbon emission factor method, gravity center migration model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, we integrated multi-temporal land use and socio-economic data to assess the carbon sequestration supply–demand relationship. Key findings include: (1) Guizhou’ s carbon sequestration supply increased by 465 million tons, primarily from forestland and cultivated land, with a notable northwestward shift in supply. (2) Demand surged by 408 million tons, primarily driven by urban expansion in the northeast. (3) The carbon service supply and demandratio (CSSDR) declined from 0.53 to 0.44, revealing a shrinking surplus and significant spatial mismatch, particularly in urbanizing areas. These results provide a scientific basis for spatially differentiated land use policies and ecological compensation mechanisms, offering a replicable framework for other ecologically vulnerable regions pursuing carbon neutrality.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005321Carbon sequestration supply–demand relationshipSpatial-temporal evolution characteristicsSpatial autocorrelationInVEST modelKarst ecologically fragile area |
| spellingShingle | Yuanhong Luo Yi Zhang Song Ma Chao Hou Limin Zhang Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province Ecological Indicators Carbon sequestration supply–demand relationship Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics Spatial autocorrelation InVEST model Karst ecologically fragile area |
| title | Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province |
| title_full | Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province |
| title_fullStr | Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province |
| title_short | Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province |
| title_sort | spatial temporal pattern and supply demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low carbon perspective a case study of guizhou province |
| topic | Carbon sequestration supply–demand relationship Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics Spatial autocorrelation InVEST model Karst ecologically fragile area |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005321 |
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