Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China
Abstract Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes dea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3 |
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| author | Sujuan Chen Maigeng Zhou De Li Liu Shilu Tong Zhiwei Xu Mengmeng Li Michael Tong Qiyong Liu Jun Yang |
| author_facet | Sujuan Chen Maigeng Zhou De Li Liu Shilu Tong Zhiwei Xu Mengmeng Li Michael Tong Qiyong Liu Jun Yang |
| author_sort | Sujuan Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-758e75f464844a88a6de6d10d7008b2a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-758e75f464844a88a6de6d10d7008b2a2025-08-20T02:22:16ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-11-01711910.1038/s41612-024-00839-3Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in ChinaSujuan Chen0Maigeng Zhou1De Li Liu2Shilu Tong3Zhiwei Xu4Mengmeng Li5Michael Tong6Qiyong Liu7Jun Yang8The Key Laboratory of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityNational Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural InstituteNational Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionSchool of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith UniversityState Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National UniversityNational Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionThe Key Laboratory of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityAbstract Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3 |
| spellingShingle | Sujuan Chen Maigeng Zhou De Li Liu Shilu Tong Zhiwei Xu Mengmeng Li Michael Tong Qiyong Liu Jun Yang Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_full | Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_fullStr | Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_short | Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_sort | mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00839-3 |
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