The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models
Economic evaluations that incorporate value-of-information analysis frequently conclude that the greatest information value relates to replicating short-term clinical trials. This study builds on recent guidance relating to extrapolation in economic evaluation by assessing the impact of alternative...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SAGE Publishing
2025-05-01
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| Series: | MDM Policy & Practice |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/23814683251340058 |
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| author | Doug Coyle Kathryn Coyle |
| author_facet | Doug Coyle Kathryn Coyle |
| author_sort | Doug Coyle |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Economic evaluations that incorporate value-of-information analysis frequently conclude that the greatest information value relates to replicating short-term clinical trials. This study builds on recent guidance relating to extrapolation in economic evaluation by assessing the impact of alternative approaches to representing the uncertainty around unobserved/extrapolated data with respect to incremental outcomes and value of information. When the uncertainty over unobserved and observed data is considered distinct but correlated (i.e., has a joint distribution), it is demonstrated that the value to replicating short-term clinical studies is lessened and that further studies relating to the unobserved periods likely provide more value. Highlights Current practice in economic evaluation often involves the inappropriate specification of uncertainty with respect to unobserved data. Appropriate specification of uncertainty will lead to more pertinent recommendations over future clinical studies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-755547b1af024b5abfe12e7a2f86ea25 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2381-4683 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | MDM Policy & Practice |
| spelling | doaj-art-755547b1af024b5abfe12e7a2f86ea252025-08-20T02:34:32ZengSAGE PublishingMDM Policy & Practice2381-46832025-05-011010.1177/23814683251340058The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision ModelsDoug CoyleKathryn CoyleEconomic evaluations that incorporate value-of-information analysis frequently conclude that the greatest information value relates to replicating short-term clinical trials. This study builds on recent guidance relating to extrapolation in economic evaluation by assessing the impact of alternative approaches to representing the uncertainty around unobserved/extrapolated data with respect to incremental outcomes and value of information. When the uncertainty over unobserved and observed data is considered distinct but correlated (i.e., has a joint distribution), it is demonstrated that the value to replicating short-term clinical studies is lessened and that further studies relating to the unobserved periods likely provide more value. Highlights Current practice in economic evaluation often involves the inappropriate specification of uncertainty with respect to unobserved data. Appropriate specification of uncertainty will lead to more pertinent recommendations over future clinical studies.https://doi.org/10.1177/23814683251340058 |
| spellingShingle | Doug Coyle Kathryn Coyle The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models MDM Policy & Practice |
| title | The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models |
| title_full | The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models |
| title_short | The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models |
| title_sort | impact of alternative specifications of uncertainty relating to extrapolation in decision models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/23814683251340058 |
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