Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach
Objective Reducing the incidence of hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) is a priority for soccer clubs. However, robust multifactorial predictive models are lacking and potential predictors such as sprint kinematics, performance fatigability, and psychological variables have been overlooked. Thus, the...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Annals of Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/07853890.2025.2494683 |
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| author | Diane Baize Stéphanie Mériaux-Scoffier Anasthase Massamba Thomas Hureau Nicolas Reneaud Yoann Garcia—Gimenez Florian Marchand Bastien Bontemps Baptiste Corcelle Vincent Maléjac Amyn Jaafar Emiliano Ippoliti Florian Payet Iliès Ajarai Fabienne d’Arripe-Longueville Enzo Piponnier |
| author_facet | Diane Baize Stéphanie Mériaux-Scoffier Anasthase Massamba Thomas Hureau Nicolas Reneaud Yoann Garcia—Gimenez Florian Marchand Bastien Bontemps Baptiste Corcelle Vincent Maléjac Amyn Jaafar Emiliano Ippoliti Florian Payet Iliès Ajarai Fabienne d’Arripe-Longueville Enzo Piponnier |
| author_sort | Diane Baize |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective Reducing the incidence of hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) is a priority for soccer clubs. However, robust multifactorial predictive models are lacking and potential predictors such as sprint kinematics, performance fatigability, and psychological variables have been overlooked. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a preliminary parsimonious multifactorial model to predict players at risk of HSI through preseason screening.Materials and Method Psychological, physiological, kinematic, performance fatigability and health-related variables were collected for 120 regional and national soccer players during the 2022 preseason. HSIs were prospectively recorded over the entire soccer season. After variable selection, logistic regressions with the Wald backward stepwise method were used to refine the model. The predictive abilities of the model and of the individual variables were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).Results Twenty-nine players sustained an HSI during the follow-up period. The final model included eight variables: age, sex, HSI history, knee flexor performance fatigability, sprint performance (best sprint time and maximal theoretical velocity V0), perceived vulnerability to injury, and subjective norms in soccer. While its model was preliminary, it showed good fit indices and strong predictive performance (true positive rate: 79%, AUC = .82). None of the variables evaluated independently demonstrated satisfactory performance in predicting HSI (AUC≤.65).Conclusion Using a multidisciplinary approach and measurements of only a few variables during preseason screening, the current model tends to demonstrate high accuracy in identifying soccer players at risk of HSI. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7546914cbeee4435a07ccd0d7ab445a7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0785-3890 1365-2060 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Annals of Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-7546914cbeee4435a07ccd0d7ab445a72025-08-20T03:28:47ZengTaylor & Francis GroupAnnals of Medicine0785-38901365-20602025-12-0157110.1080/07853890.2025.2494683Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approachDiane Baize0Stéphanie Mériaux-Scoffier1Anasthase Massamba2Thomas Hureau3Nicolas Reneaud4Yoann Garcia—Gimenez5Florian Marchand6Bastien Bontemps7Baptiste Corcelle8Vincent Maléjac9Amyn Jaafar10Emiliano Ippoliti11Florian Payet12Iliès Ajarai13Fabienne d’Arripe-Longueville14Enzo Piponnier15LAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceCEERIPE UR 3072, Université de Strasbourg, Strasbourg, FranceCEERIPE UR 3072, Université de Strasbourg, Strasbourg, FranceCHU de Nice, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceCHU de Nice, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceRacing Club Pays de Grasse, Grasse, FranceOlympique Gymnaste Club of Nice Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceOlympique Lyonnais, Décines-Charpieu, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceLAMHESS UPR 6312, Université Côte d’Azur, Nice, FranceObjective Reducing the incidence of hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) is a priority for soccer clubs. However, robust multifactorial predictive models are lacking and potential predictors such as sprint kinematics, performance fatigability, and psychological variables have been overlooked. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a preliminary parsimonious multifactorial model to predict players at risk of HSI through preseason screening.Materials and Method Psychological, physiological, kinematic, performance fatigability and health-related variables were collected for 120 regional and national soccer players during the 2022 preseason. HSIs were prospectively recorded over the entire soccer season. After variable selection, logistic regressions with the Wald backward stepwise method were used to refine the model. The predictive abilities of the model and of the individual variables were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).Results Twenty-nine players sustained an HSI during the follow-up period. The final model included eight variables: age, sex, HSI history, knee flexor performance fatigability, sprint performance (best sprint time and maximal theoretical velocity V0), perceived vulnerability to injury, and subjective norms in soccer. While its model was preliminary, it showed good fit indices and strong predictive performance (true positive rate: 79%, AUC = .82). None of the variables evaluated independently demonstrated satisfactory performance in predicting HSI (AUC≤.65).Conclusion Using a multidisciplinary approach and measurements of only a few variables during preseason screening, the current model tends to demonstrate high accuracy in identifying soccer players at risk of HSI.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/07853890.2025.2494683European footballperformance fatigabilityprimary preventionpsychological factorssports injuries |
| spellingShingle | Diane Baize Stéphanie Mériaux-Scoffier Anasthase Massamba Thomas Hureau Nicolas Reneaud Yoann Garcia—Gimenez Florian Marchand Bastien Bontemps Baptiste Corcelle Vincent Maléjac Amyn Jaafar Emiliano Ippoliti Florian Payet Iliès Ajarai Fabienne d’Arripe-Longueville Enzo Piponnier Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach Annals of Medicine European football performance fatigability primary prevention psychological factors sports injuries |
| title | Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach |
| title_full | Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach |
| title_fullStr | Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach |
| title_short | Development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players: a multidisciplinary approach |
| title_sort | development of a preliminary multivariable model predicting hamstring strain injuries during preseason screening in soccer players a multidisciplinary approach |
| topic | European football performance fatigability primary prevention psychological factors sports injuries |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/07853890.2025.2494683 |
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