Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets

Objective: this study aims to examine volatility transmission in ASEAN-5 financial markets during 2019–2023, covering pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases, to analyze the impact of COVID-19 and other external factors, such as political crises and geopolitical tensions, on these interconn...

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Main Authors: Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah, Rialdi Azhar
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD) 2025-06-01
Series:BAR: Brazilian Administration Review
Subjects:
Online Access:https://bar.anpad.org.br/index.php/bar/article/view/713
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author Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah
Rialdi Azhar
author_facet Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah
Rialdi Azhar
author_sort Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah
collection DOAJ
description Objective: this study aims to examine volatility transmission in ASEAN-5 financial markets during 2019–2023, covering pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases, to analyze the impact of COVID-19 and other external factors, such as political crises and geopolitical tensions, on these interconnected markets. Methods: using AR-GARCH and VECM models, the study analyzed aggregated stock index data from the five countries, with a focus on volatility spillovers and value at risk (VaR) levels to assess both short- and long-term interdependencies. Results: the findings reveal substantial volatility transmission among ASEAN-5 markets, indicating significant financial interdependencies that heighten regional risk, especially during periods of global disruption. VaR results further suggest that the Indonesian stock market (JKSE) carries a higher risk profile, reflecting the impact of local economic conditions and regional interconnectivity. Conclusions: the study underscores the need for investors to account for volatility transmission in risk management, especially given the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical factors. Strong market interconnectivity within the ASEAN-5 may limit the effectiveness of cross-market diversification, highlighting the importance of regional risk mitigation and coordinated policies.
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spelling doaj-art-752fdfecd2f143d2852b9fe5465291e12025-08-20T03:31:45ZengAssociação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD)BAR: Brazilian Administration Review1807-76922025-06-01222e240148e24014810.1590/1807-7692bar2025240148713Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial MarketsFajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah0Rialdi Azhar1Universitas Lampung, Bandar Lampung, Lampung, IndonesiaUniversitas Lampung, Bandar Lampung, Lampung, IndonesiaObjective: this study aims to examine volatility transmission in ASEAN-5 financial markets during 2019–2023, covering pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases, to analyze the impact of COVID-19 and other external factors, such as political crises and geopolitical tensions, on these interconnected markets. Methods: using AR-GARCH and VECM models, the study analyzed aggregated stock index data from the five countries, with a focus on volatility spillovers and value at risk (VaR) levels to assess both short- and long-term interdependencies. Results: the findings reveal substantial volatility transmission among ASEAN-5 markets, indicating significant financial interdependencies that heighten regional risk, especially during periods of global disruption. VaR results further suggest that the Indonesian stock market (JKSE) carries a higher risk profile, reflecting the impact of local economic conditions and regional interconnectivity. Conclusions: the study underscores the need for investors to account for volatility transmission in risk management, especially given the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical factors. Strong market interconnectivity within the ASEAN-5 may limit the effectiveness of cross-market diversification, highlighting the importance of regional risk mitigation and coordinated policies.https://bar.anpad.org.br/index.php/bar/article/view/713volatility spillovervalue at riskgarchasean-5 financial marketrisk measurement
spellingShingle Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah
Rialdi Azhar
Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets
BAR: Brazilian Administration Review
volatility spillover
value at risk
garch
asean-5 financial market
risk measurement
title Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets
title_full Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets
title_fullStr Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets
title_full_unstemmed Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets
title_short Volatility Spillover and Risk Measurement of Southeast Asian Financial Markets
title_sort volatility spillover and risk measurement of southeast asian financial markets
topic volatility spillover
value at risk
garch
asean-5 financial market
risk measurement
url https://bar.anpad.org.br/index.php/bar/article/view/713
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AT rialdiazhar volatilityspilloverandriskmeasurementofsoutheastasianfinancialmarkets