Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations
The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Climate Risk Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096325000324 |
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| author | Douglas C. Jaks Ashish Shrestha Christopher M. Chini |
| author_facet | Douglas C. Jaks Ashish Shrestha Christopher M. Chini |
| author_sort | Douglas C. Jaks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-742a562cb36940e8a1bc50c7597df2a7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2212-0963 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-742a562cb36940e8a1bc50c7597df2a72025-08-20T03:45:45ZengElsevierClimate Risk Management2212-09632025-01-014910071810.1016/j.crm.2025.100718Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installationsDouglas C. Jaks0Ashish Shrestha1Christopher M. Chini2Department of Systems Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, 2950 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH 45433, United StatesDepartment of Systems Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, 2950 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH 45433, United States; Corresponding author.Department of Systems Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, 2950 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH 45433, United States; Earth Systems Predictability & Resiliency Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard, Richland, WA 99352, United StatesThe resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096325000324Non-stationarityStormwater modernizationStormwater design and resiliencePrecipitation frequency estimatesIntensity-duration-frequency curves |
| spellingShingle | Douglas C. Jaks Ashish Shrestha Christopher M. Chini Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations Climate Risk Management Non-stationarity Stormwater modernization Stormwater design and resilience Precipitation frequency estimates Intensity-duration-frequency curves |
| title | Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations |
| title_full | Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations |
| title_fullStr | Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations |
| title_short | Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations |
| title_sort | non stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at usaf installations |
| topic | Non-stationarity Stormwater modernization Stormwater design and resilience Precipitation frequency estimates Intensity-duration-frequency curves |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096325000324 |
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