A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF EPIDEMIC

First let's construct the determined model of the dynamic of uncontrolled epidemiological process. The quotient β describes frequency of meetings of sick people with healthy and probability of infection. It is subject to action of random factors. Let's enter an item for it which will take...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: N. I. Ovsyannikova
Format: Article
Language:Russian
Published: Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation 2016-12-01
Series:Научный вестник МГТУ ГА
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Online Access:https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/859
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Summary:First let's construct the determined model of the dynamic of uncontrolled epidemiological process. The quotient β describes frequency of meetings of sick people with healthy and probability of infection. It is subject to action of random factors. Let's enter an item for it which will take into account the influence of a random destabilization. We'll have stochastic model of epidemic. Comparing the determined and stochastic models, we'll find admissible borders for destabilizing quotient σ if the maximum deviation of dynamic variables can not be higher than 5 %.
ISSN:2079-0619
2542-0119