Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study
Objectives: To reconstruct age-structured case counts of COVID-19 using sentinel reporting, which replaced universal reporting of COVID-19 from May 2023 in Japan. Methods: Using COVID-19 sentinel data stratified by discrete age groups in selected prefectures and referring to universal case count dat...
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Elsevier
2024-11-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971224002947 |
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| author | Yuta Okada Minami Ueda Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_facet | Yuta Okada Minami Ueda Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_sort | Yuta Okada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: To reconstruct age-structured case counts of COVID-19 using sentinel reporting, which replaced universal reporting of COVID-19 from May 2023 in Japan. Methods: Using COVID-19 sentinel data stratified by discrete age groups in selected prefectures and referring to universal case count data up to May 8, 2023, we fitted a statistical model to handle weekly growth rates as a function of age and time so as to convert sentinel data to case counts after cessation of universal reporting. Results: The age distribution of cases in sentinel reporting was significantly biased toward younger age groups compared to universal reporting. When comparing the epidemic size of the 9th wave (May 8 to September 18, 2023) to the 8th wave (October 3, 2022 to April 10, 2023), using the wave-on-wave ratio of total cumulative sentinel cases led to a significant underestimation of the wave-on-wave in Tokyo (0.975, vs 1.461 by universal reporting) and Okinawa (1.299, vs 1.472). The estimates of growth rates, scaling factors between universal and sentinel cases, and expected universal case count showed robustness to changes in the ending week of the data period. Conclusion: Our model quantified COVID-19 dynamics, comparably to universal reporting that ended in May 2023, enabling detailed and up-to-date health burden analysis using sentinel reports. The cumulative incidence was greater than that suggested from sentinel data in Tokyo, Nara, and Okinawa. Per-population burdens among children were particularly high in Osaka and Nara, indicating a strong bias in sentinel reporting toward pediatric cases. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-73df11752e9e450c8ba91ef9e91e5cfb |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-73df11752e9e450c8ba91ef9e91e5cfb2025-08-20T02:11:37ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122024-11-0114810722310.1016/j.ijid.2024.107223Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling studyYuta Okada0Minami Ueda1Hiroshi Nishiura2Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanGraduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanCorrespondence to: Hiroshi Nishiura, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoecho, Sakyoku, Kyoto city, Kyoto 6068503, Japan, Tel: +81-75-753-4456; fax: +81-75-753-4458.; Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanObjectives: To reconstruct age-structured case counts of COVID-19 using sentinel reporting, which replaced universal reporting of COVID-19 from May 2023 in Japan. Methods: Using COVID-19 sentinel data stratified by discrete age groups in selected prefectures and referring to universal case count data up to May 8, 2023, we fitted a statistical model to handle weekly growth rates as a function of age and time so as to convert sentinel data to case counts after cessation of universal reporting. Results: The age distribution of cases in sentinel reporting was significantly biased toward younger age groups compared to universal reporting. When comparing the epidemic size of the 9th wave (May 8 to September 18, 2023) to the 8th wave (October 3, 2022 to April 10, 2023), using the wave-on-wave ratio of total cumulative sentinel cases led to a significant underestimation of the wave-on-wave in Tokyo (0.975, vs 1.461 by universal reporting) and Okinawa (1.299, vs 1.472). The estimates of growth rates, scaling factors between universal and sentinel cases, and expected universal case count showed robustness to changes in the ending week of the data period. Conclusion: Our model quantified COVID-19 dynamics, comparably to universal reporting that ended in May 2023, enabling detailed and up-to-date health burden analysis using sentinel reports. The cumulative incidence was greater than that suggested from sentinel data in Tokyo, Nara, and Okinawa. Per-population burdens among children were particularly high in Osaka and Nara, indicating a strong bias in sentinel reporting toward pediatric cases.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971224002947COVID-19Sentinel surveillanceEpidemic sizeTime-series analysisJapan |
| spellingShingle | Yuta Okada Minami Ueda Hiroshi Nishiura Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study International Journal of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Sentinel surveillance Epidemic size Time-series analysis Japan |
| title | Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study |
| title_full | Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study |
| title_fullStr | Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study |
| title_short | Reconstructing the age-structured case count of COVID-19 from sentinel surveillance data in Japan: A modeling study |
| title_sort | reconstructing the age structured case count of covid 19 from sentinel surveillance data in japan a modeling study |
| topic | COVID-19 Sentinel surveillance Epidemic size Time-series analysis Japan |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971224002947 |
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