Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia
The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Académie des sciences
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Comptes Rendus. Géoscience |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/geoscience/articles/10.5802/crgeos.219/ |
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| author | Besbes, Mustapha Chahed, Jamel |
| author_facet | Besbes, Mustapha Chahed, Jamel |
| author_sort | Besbes, Mustapha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7390e57b121b4fd4b608032229e459f8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1778-7025 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Académie des sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Comptes Rendus. Géoscience |
| spelling | doaj-art-7390e57b121b4fd4b608032229e459f82025-02-07T10:40:14ZengAcadémie des sciencesComptes Rendus. Géoscience1778-70252023-06-01355S146548610.5802/crgeos.21910.5802/crgeos.219Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern TunisiaBesbes, Mustapha0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5003-280XChahed, Jamel1https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7134-6064University of Tunis El Manar and Tunisian Academy of Sciences, Letters and Arts, TunisiaUniversity of Tunis El Manar, National Engineering School of Tunis, TunisiaThe objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/geoscience/articles/10.5802/crgeos.219/Climate changeGlobal climate modelEarth system modelTunisiaBlue waterGreen water |
| spellingShingle | Besbes, Mustapha Chahed, Jamel Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia Comptes Rendus. Géoscience Climate change Global climate model Earth system model Tunisia Blue water Green water |
| title | Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia |
| title_full | Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia |
| title_fullStr | Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia |
| title_short | Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia |
| title_sort | predictability of water resources with global climate models case of northern tunisia |
| topic | Climate change Global climate model Earth system model Tunisia Blue water Green water |
| url | https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/geoscience/articles/10.5802/crgeos.219/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT besbesmustapha predictabilityofwaterresourceswithglobalclimatemodelscaseofnortherntunisia AT chahedjamel predictabilityofwaterresourceswithglobalclimatemodelscaseofnortherntunisia |