Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou

Considering the joint influence of upstream water,astronomical tides,and storm surges,this paper constructs a refined forecast model for storm surges in Guangzhou based on ADCIRC.Driven by the Jelesnianski typhoon model,this model takes the upstream water and the forecast of tide levels in the open...

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Main Authors: LUO Zhifeng, CHEN Gang, DAO Fuhai
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: Editorial Office of Pearl River 2022-01-01
Series:Renmin Zhujiang
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.01.004
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author LUO Zhifeng
CHEN Gang
DAO Fuhai
author_facet LUO Zhifeng
CHEN Gang
DAO Fuhai
author_sort LUO Zhifeng
collection DOAJ
description Considering the joint influence of upstream water,astronomical tides,and storm surges,this paper constructs a refined forecast model for storm surges in Guangzhou based on ADCIRC.Driven by the Jelesnianski typhoon model,this model takes the upstream water and the forecast of tide levels in the open sea as the upper and lower boundary input and uses the irregularly triangular grids to simulate the topographic change of coastlines.The astronomical tides of six representative tide stations in cities near the Pearl River Estuary are compared with the measured water levels of six tide stations in Guangzhou under the influence of Typhoon Mangkhut and Hato for verification.The results show that the refinement degree of this forecast model can reach the hundred-meter level,and the maximum mean absolute error of astronomical tide fitting is less than 13 cm.The water increasing process,maximum water level value, and occurrence time of storm surges of the two typhoons are well fitted.All of these indicate that the model can basically reflect the astronomical tides and the water increasing process of storm surges along the Pearl River Estuary,which can provide a reference for the warning and high-resolution prediction of storm surges in Guangzhou.
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institution Kabale University
issn 1001-9235
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series Renmin Zhujiang
spelling doaj-art-72d124870b364abcaa5f1f27769906662025-01-15T02:27:00ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352022-01-014347644490Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in GuangzhouLUO ZhifengCHEN GangDAO FuhaiConsidering the joint influence of upstream water,astronomical tides,and storm surges,this paper constructs a refined forecast model for storm surges in Guangzhou based on ADCIRC.Driven by the Jelesnianski typhoon model,this model takes the upstream water and the forecast of tide levels in the open sea as the upper and lower boundary input and uses the irregularly triangular grids to simulate the topographic change of coastlines.The astronomical tides of six representative tide stations in cities near the Pearl River Estuary are compared with the measured water levels of six tide stations in Guangzhou under the influence of Typhoon Mangkhut and Hato for verification.The results show that the refinement degree of this forecast model can reach the hundred-meter level,and the maximum mean absolute error of astronomical tide fitting is less than 13 cm.The water increasing process,maximum water level value, and occurrence time of storm surges of the two typhoons are well fitted.All of these indicate that the model can basically reflect the astronomical tides and the water increasing process of storm surges along the Pearl River Estuary,which can provide a reference for the warning and high-resolution prediction of storm surges in Guangzhou.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.01.004ADCIRCstorm surgerefinedGuangzhou
spellingShingle LUO Zhifeng
CHEN Gang
DAO Fuhai
Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou
Renmin Zhujiang
ADCIRC
storm surge
refined
Guangzhou
title Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou
title_full Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou
title_fullStr Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou
title_full_unstemmed Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou
title_short Construction and Verification of the Refined Forecast Model for Storm Surges Based on ADCIRC in Guangzhou
title_sort construction and verification of the refined forecast model for storm surges based on adcirc in guangzhou
topic ADCIRC
storm surge
refined
Guangzhou
url http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.01.004
work_keys_str_mv AT luozhifeng constructionandverificationoftherefinedforecastmodelforstormsurgesbasedonadcircinguangzhou
AT chengang constructionandverificationoftherefinedforecastmodelforstormsurgesbasedonadcircinguangzhou
AT daofuhai constructionandverificationoftherefinedforecastmodelforstormsurgesbasedonadcircinguangzhou