Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis
Abstract Background The incidence of human brucellosis has risen sharply in China but little is known about trends in pastoral and agricultural areas respectively. This study aimed to analyze the annual and monthly incidence trends of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019. It sought to identi...
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BMC
2025-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-10561-x |
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| author | Xiaojuan Ma Zhuo Liu Yuhui Geng Yuan Zhao Hua Meng Mingbo Chen Ting Pan Dongfeng Pan Peifeng Liang |
| author_facet | Xiaojuan Ma Zhuo Liu Yuhui Geng Yuan Zhao Hua Meng Mingbo Chen Ting Pan Dongfeng Pan Peifeng Liang |
| author_sort | Xiaojuan Ma |
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| description | Abstract Background The incidence of human brucellosis has risen sharply in China but little is known about trends in pastoral and agricultural areas respectively. This study aimed to analyze the annual and monthly incidence trends of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019. It sought to identify factors contributing to higher incidence rates at specific times and to compare incidence trends across pastoral, agricultural/pastoral, and agricultural areas. Methods Annual and monthly incidence and numbers of reported cases of human brucellosis in regional China between 2004 and 2019 were accessed from the National Public Health Science Data Sharing Center, and the annual percentage change (APC) in pastoral and agricultural areas was calculated. Annual and monthly trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression model. Results 569016 cases of human brucellosis were reported between 2004 and 2019 with a peak in 2014. A trend of increasing incidence was found (AAPC = 6.3%, 95% CI: 3.2–9.4%) with higher rates in pastoral areas but greater mean increases in agricultural (AAPC = 9.4) and agricultural/pastoral areas (AAPC = 7.7) than in pastoral areas (AAPC = 5.9). Infections occurred throughout the year with a concentration of cases between March and July. Increasing monthly incidence was found in all types of areas from January to May (APC > 0) and a decreasing monthly trend was seen from May to December (APC < 0, p < 0.05). Conclusions The incidence of human brucellosis was higher in pastoral areas of China than in agricultural/pastoral or agricultural areas, however, the rate of increase was higher in agricultural/pastoral and agricultural areas than in pastoral areas. Epidemic surveillance should be strengthened in key areas and prevention and control measures increased nationwide. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-72cd31de36ac46b29757e269aae1cb50 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-72cd31de36ac46b29757e269aae1cb502025-02-09T12:14:31ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342025-02-0125111010.1186/s12879-025-10561-xChanging trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysisXiaojuan Ma0Zhuo Liu1Yuhui Geng2Yuan Zhao3Hua Meng4Mingbo Chen5Ting Pan6Dongfeng Pan7Peifeng Liang8School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Ningxia Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Ningxia Medical UniversityDepartment of Medical Statistics, People’s Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Ningxia Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Ningxia Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Ningxia Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Ningxia Medical UniversityDepartment of Emergency Medicine, People’s Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Ningxia Medical UniversityDepartment of Medical Affairs, People’s Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Ningxia Medical UniversityAbstract Background The incidence of human brucellosis has risen sharply in China but little is known about trends in pastoral and agricultural areas respectively. This study aimed to analyze the annual and monthly incidence trends of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019. It sought to identify factors contributing to higher incidence rates at specific times and to compare incidence trends across pastoral, agricultural/pastoral, and agricultural areas. Methods Annual and monthly incidence and numbers of reported cases of human brucellosis in regional China between 2004 and 2019 were accessed from the National Public Health Science Data Sharing Center, and the annual percentage change (APC) in pastoral and agricultural areas was calculated. Annual and monthly trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression model. Results 569016 cases of human brucellosis were reported between 2004 and 2019 with a peak in 2014. A trend of increasing incidence was found (AAPC = 6.3%, 95% CI: 3.2–9.4%) with higher rates in pastoral areas but greater mean increases in agricultural (AAPC = 9.4) and agricultural/pastoral areas (AAPC = 7.7) than in pastoral areas (AAPC = 5.9). Infections occurred throughout the year with a concentration of cases between March and July. Increasing monthly incidence was found in all types of areas from January to May (APC > 0) and a decreasing monthly trend was seen from May to December (APC < 0, p < 0.05). Conclusions The incidence of human brucellosis was higher in pastoral areas of China than in agricultural/pastoral or agricultural areas, however, the rate of increase was higher in agricultural/pastoral and agricultural areas than in pastoral areas. Epidemic surveillance should be strengthened in key areas and prevention and control measures increased nationwide.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-10561-xBrucellosisTemporal trendsJoinpoint regressionAnnual percentage change |
| spellingShingle | Xiaojuan Ma Zhuo Liu Yuhui Geng Yuan Zhao Hua Meng Mingbo Chen Ting Pan Dongfeng Pan Peifeng Liang Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis BMC Infectious Diseases Brucellosis Temporal trends Joinpoint regression Annual percentage change |
| title | Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis |
| title_full | Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis |
| title_fullStr | Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis |
| title_short | Changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural China, 2004–2019: a Joinpoint regression analysis |
| title_sort | changing trends in human brucellosis in pastoral and agricultural china 2004 2019 a joinpoint regression analysis |
| topic | Brucellosis Temporal trends Joinpoint regression Annual percentage change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-10561-x |
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