The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract The present study considers tropical cyclogenesis as a multi‐stage process in which pre‐cursor disturbances develop first and a fraction of them further strengthen to become a tropical cyclone (TC). Using this framework, we analyze the impact of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO)‐ associated a...

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Main Authors: G. N. Emlaw, D. Kim
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-06-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL108102
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author G. N. Emlaw
D. Kim
author_facet G. N. Emlaw
D. Kim
author_sort G. N. Emlaw
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The present study considers tropical cyclogenesis as a multi‐stage process in which pre‐cursor disturbances develop first and a fraction of them further strengthen to become a tropical cyclone (TC). Using this framework, we analyze the impact of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO)‐ associated anomalous large‐scale environmental conditions on the triggering of tropical convective clusters (TCCs)—a type of pre‐cursor disturbance—and the TCC‐to‐TC transition in the western Pacific. We find that, within the MJO's lifecycle, the modulation of the TCC frequency by the MJO drives TC genesis frequency anomalies earlier than the TCC‐to‐TC transition rate. Also, the fluctuation of TCC occurrence frequency is most strongly associated with the MJO's large‐scale ascent and relative humidity anomalies, while that of the transition of TCCs to a TC is mainly associated with the MJO's vorticity anomalies. Our results suggest the distinct roles of large‐scale environmental variables in different stages of tropical cyclogenesis.
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spelling doaj-art-726bad43beca49c693ebe411bf18bca72025-08-20T01:52:06ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-06-015112n/an/a10.1029/2023GL108102The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian OscillationG. N. Emlaw0D. Kim1Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USAAbstract The present study considers tropical cyclogenesis as a multi‐stage process in which pre‐cursor disturbances develop first and a fraction of them further strengthen to become a tropical cyclone (TC). Using this framework, we analyze the impact of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO)‐ associated anomalous large‐scale environmental conditions on the triggering of tropical convective clusters (TCCs)—a type of pre‐cursor disturbance—and the TCC‐to‐TC transition in the western Pacific. We find that, within the MJO's lifecycle, the modulation of the TCC frequency by the MJO drives TC genesis frequency anomalies earlier than the TCC‐to‐TC transition rate. Also, the fluctuation of TCC occurrence frequency is most strongly associated with the MJO's large‐scale ascent and relative humidity anomalies, while that of the transition of TCCs to a TC is mainly associated with the MJO's vorticity anomalies. Our results suggest the distinct roles of large‐scale environmental variables in different stages of tropical cyclogenesis.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL108102tropical cyclogenesisMadden‐Julian oscillationTC precursor disturbances
spellingShingle G. N. Emlaw
D. Kim
The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
Geophysical Research Letters
tropical cyclogenesis
Madden‐Julian oscillation
TC precursor disturbances
title The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
title_full The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
title_fullStr The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
title_full_unstemmed The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
title_short The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation
title_sort role of precursor disturbances on the modulation of western pacific tropical cyclogenesis by the madden julian oscillation
topic tropical cyclogenesis
Madden‐Julian oscillation
TC precursor disturbances
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL108102
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