Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis
Background Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) has emerged as a significant global health issue. This study aimed to reveal and predict the epidemiological characteristics of CKD.Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study spanning the years 1990 to 2019 were employed to analyze the incidence, pre...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Renal Failure |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2403645 |
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| author | Boqing Dong Yuting Zhao Jiale Wang Cuinan Lu Zuhan Chen Ruiyang Ma Huanjing Bi Jingwen Wang Ying Wang Xiaoming Ding Yang Li |
| author_facet | Boqing Dong Yuting Zhao Jiale Wang Cuinan Lu Zuhan Chen Ruiyang Ma Huanjing Bi Jingwen Wang Ying Wang Xiaoming Ding Yang Li |
| author_sort | Boqing Dong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) has emerged as a significant global health issue. This study aimed to reveal and predict the epidemiological characteristics of CKD.Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study spanning the years 1990 to 2019 were employed to analyze the incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of CKD. Joinpoint analysis assessed epidemiological trends of CKD from 1990 to 2019. An age-period-cohort model evaluated risk variations. Risk factor analysis uncovered their influences on DALYs and deaths of CKD. Decomposition analysis explored the drivers to CKD. Frontier analysis evaluated the correlations between CKD burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was employed to predict future incidence and death of CKD.Results In 2019, there were 18,986,903 incident cases, 697,294,307 prevalent cases, 1,427,232 deaths, and 41,538,592 DALYs of CKD globally. Joinpoint analysis showed increasing age-standardized rates of CKD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY from 1990 to 2019. High systolic blood pressure significantly contributed to CKD-related deaths and DALYs, particularly in the high SDI region. Decomposition analysis identified population growth as the primary driver of CKD incident cases and DALYs globally. Countries like Nicaragua showed the highest effective differences, indicating room for improvement in CKD management. By 2030, while incident cases of CKD were predicted to rise, the global deaths might decrease.Conclusions The study revealed a concerning upward trend in the global burden of CKD, emphasizing the need for targeted management strategies across different causes, regions, age groups, and genders. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-71fb15441e4a4590a2bc74063b374673 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0886-022X 1525-6049 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renal Failure |
| spelling | doaj-art-71fb15441e4a4590a2bc74063b3746732025-08-20T03:05:24ZengTaylor & Francis GroupRenal Failure0886-022X1525-60492024-12-0146210.1080/0886022X.2024.2403645Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysisBoqing Dong0Yuting Zhao1Jiale Wang2Cuinan Lu3Zuhan Chen4Ruiyang Ma5Huanjing Bi6Jingwen Wang7Ying Wang8Xiaoming Ding9Yang Li10Department of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Gynecologic Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaDepartment of Renal Transplantation, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, ChinaBackground Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) has emerged as a significant global health issue. This study aimed to reveal and predict the epidemiological characteristics of CKD.Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study spanning the years 1990 to 2019 were employed to analyze the incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of CKD. Joinpoint analysis assessed epidemiological trends of CKD from 1990 to 2019. An age-period-cohort model evaluated risk variations. Risk factor analysis uncovered their influences on DALYs and deaths of CKD. Decomposition analysis explored the drivers to CKD. Frontier analysis evaluated the correlations between CKD burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was employed to predict future incidence and death of CKD.Results In 2019, there were 18,986,903 incident cases, 697,294,307 prevalent cases, 1,427,232 deaths, and 41,538,592 DALYs of CKD globally. Joinpoint analysis showed increasing age-standardized rates of CKD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY from 1990 to 2019. High systolic blood pressure significantly contributed to CKD-related deaths and DALYs, particularly in the high SDI region. Decomposition analysis identified population growth as the primary driver of CKD incident cases and DALYs globally. Countries like Nicaragua showed the highest effective differences, indicating room for improvement in CKD management. By 2030, while incident cases of CKD were predicted to rise, the global deaths might decrease.Conclusions The study revealed a concerning upward trend in the global burden of CKD, emphasizing the need for targeted management strategies across different causes, regions, age groups, and genders.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2403645Chronic kidney diseaseepidemiologyglobal burdenfrontier analysisprediction |
| spellingShingle | Boqing Dong Yuting Zhao Jiale Wang Cuinan Lu Zuhan Chen Ruiyang Ma Huanjing Bi Jingwen Wang Ying Wang Xiaoming Ding Yang Li Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis Renal Failure Chronic kidney disease epidemiology global burden frontier analysis prediction |
| title | Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full | Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_short | Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_sort | epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by bayesian age period cohort analysis |
| topic | Chronic kidney disease epidemiology global burden frontier analysis prediction |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/0886022X.2024.2403645 |
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