Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate

Abstract Rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses is crucial for effective emergency rescue operations, with post-earthquake geological hazards constituting a significant component. In this study, we conducted extensive field investigations of historical earthquakes in China, collecting mortal...

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Main Authors: Xia Chaoxu, Qi Wenhua, Li Huayue, Nie Gaozhong
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08209-6
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author Xia Chaoxu
Qi Wenhua
Li Huayue
Nie Gaozhong
author_facet Xia Chaoxu
Qi Wenhua
Li Huayue
Nie Gaozhong
author_sort Xia Chaoxu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses is crucial for effective emergency rescue operations, with post-earthquake geological hazards constituting a significant component. In this study, we conducted extensive field investigations of historical earthquakes in China, collecting mortality data categorized by cause of death. Through analysis of historical earthquake records, we determined the proportions of fatalities attributed to different causes, integrating seismic intensity data, population distribution information, to establish intensity-dependent mortality rates for earthquake-triggered landslides. We systematically compiled the spatial distribution patterns, occurrence frequency, and density characteristics of landslides induced by historical earthquakes through field surveys and literature analysis. By comparing these results with historical intensity-mortality relationships, we quantified the amplifying effect of secondary geological hazards on mortality rates. The results demonstrate that landslide hazards exhibit significant mortality amplification at intensities of VIII and above, with this amplification effect intensifying progressively with higher seismic intensities. Using these findings, we developed a lethality matrix for earthquake-triggered landslides by incorporating intensity-mortality relationships. Validation using historical earthquake cases shows that the calculated casualties error within ± 30% of actual recorded values across different regions and magnitudes. This study achieves two objectives (1) verifies the validity and regional applicability of the proposed matrix methodology for landslide casualty assessment, and (2) provides a scientific foundation for developing regionalized assessment matrices, thereby enhancing post-earthquake emergency response capabilities.
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spelling doaj-art-71a131394bc5472f89b7d02bb4d39f892025-08-20T03:45:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115112210.1038/s41598-025-08209-6Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rateXia Chaoxu0Qi Wenhua1Li Huayue2Nie Gaozhong3Key Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Earthquake AdministrationKey Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Earthquake AdministrationKey Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Earthquake AdministrationKey Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Earthquake AdministrationAbstract Rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses is crucial for effective emergency rescue operations, with post-earthquake geological hazards constituting a significant component. In this study, we conducted extensive field investigations of historical earthquakes in China, collecting mortality data categorized by cause of death. Through analysis of historical earthquake records, we determined the proportions of fatalities attributed to different causes, integrating seismic intensity data, population distribution information, to establish intensity-dependent mortality rates for earthquake-triggered landslides. We systematically compiled the spatial distribution patterns, occurrence frequency, and density characteristics of landslides induced by historical earthquakes through field surveys and literature analysis. By comparing these results with historical intensity-mortality relationships, we quantified the amplifying effect of secondary geological hazards on mortality rates. The results demonstrate that landslide hazards exhibit significant mortality amplification at intensities of VIII and above, with this amplification effect intensifying progressively with higher seismic intensities. Using these findings, we developed a lethality matrix for earthquake-triggered landslides by incorporating intensity-mortality relationships. Validation using historical earthquake cases shows that the calculated casualties error within ± 30% of actual recorded values across different regions and magnitudes. This study achieves two objectives (1) verifies the validity and regional applicability of the proposed matrix methodology for landslide casualty assessment, and (2) provides a scientific foundation for developing regionalized assessment matrices, thereby enhancing post-earthquake emergency response capabilities.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08209-6Secondary landslidesMortality rateMultiple relationshipsExpanding effectLethality matrix
spellingShingle Xia Chaoxu
Qi Wenhua
Li Huayue
Nie Gaozhong
Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
Scientific Reports
Secondary landslides
Mortality rate
Multiple relationships
Expanding effect
Lethality matrix
title Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
title_full Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
title_fullStr Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
title_full_unstemmed Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
title_short Lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
title_sort lethality level casualty assessment method for earthquake landslide hazards based on the expansion effect of the mortality rate
topic Secondary landslides
Mortality rate
Multiple relationships
Expanding effect
Lethality matrix
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08209-6
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AT qiwenhua lethalitylevelcasualtyassessmentmethodforearthquakelandslidehazardsbasedontheexpansioneffectofthemortalityrate
AT lihuayue lethalitylevelcasualtyassessmentmethodforearthquakelandslidehazardsbasedontheexpansioneffectofthemortalityrate
AT niegaozhong lethalitylevelcasualtyassessmentmethodforearthquakelandslidehazardsbasedontheexpansioneffectofthemortalityrate