Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks.
For most pathogens, vaccination reduces the spread of the infection and total number of cases; thus, public policy usually advocates maximizing vaccination coverage. We use simple mathematical models to explore how this may be different for pathogens, such as influenza, which exhibit strain variatio...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2018-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199674&type=printable |
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| author | Veronika I Zarnitsyna Irina Bulusheva Andreas Handel Ira M Longini M Elizabeth Halloran Rustom Antia |
| author_facet | Veronika I Zarnitsyna Irina Bulusheva Andreas Handel Ira M Longini M Elizabeth Halloran Rustom Antia |
| author_sort | Veronika I Zarnitsyna |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | For most pathogens, vaccination reduces the spread of the infection and total number of cases; thus, public policy usually advocates maximizing vaccination coverage. We use simple mathematical models to explore how this may be different for pathogens, such as influenza, which exhibit strain variation. Our models predict that the total number of seasonal influenza infections is minimized at an intermediate (rather than maximal) level of vaccination, and, somewhat counter-intuitively, further increasing the level of the vaccination coverage may lead to higher number of influenza infections and be detrimental to the public interest. This arises due to the combined effects of: competition between multiple co-circulating strains; limited breadth of protection afforded by the vaccine; and short-term strain-transcending immunity following natural infection. The study highlights the need for better quantification of the components of vaccine efficacy and longevity of strain-transcending cross-immunity in order to generate nuanced recommendations for influenza vaccine coverage levels. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-715f9def4fb240b5900a2ec7e830249a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-715f9def4fb240b5900a2ec7e830249a2025-08-20T02:45:23ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032018-01-01136e019967410.1371/journal.pone.0199674Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks.Veronika I ZarnitsynaIrina BulushevaAndreas HandelIra M LonginiM Elizabeth HalloranRustom AntiaFor most pathogens, vaccination reduces the spread of the infection and total number of cases; thus, public policy usually advocates maximizing vaccination coverage. We use simple mathematical models to explore how this may be different for pathogens, such as influenza, which exhibit strain variation. Our models predict that the total number of seasonal influenza infections is minimized at an intermediate (rather than maximal) level of vaccination, and, somewhat counter-intuitively, further increasing the level of the vaccination coverage may lead to higher number of influenza infections and be detrimental to the public interest. This arises due to the combined effects of: competition between multiple co-circulating strains; limited breadth of protection afforded by the vaccine; and short-term strain-transcending immunity following natural infection. The study highlights the need for better quantification of the components of vaccine efficacy and longevity of strain-transcending cross-immunity in order to generate nuanced recommendations for influenza vaccine coverage levels.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199674&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Veronika I Zarnitsyna Irina Bulusheva Andreas Handel Ira M Longini M Elizabeth Halloran Rustom Antia Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks. PLoS ONE |
| title | Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks. |
| title_full | Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks. |
| title_fullStr | Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks. |
| title_short | Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks. |
| title_sort | intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199674&type=printable |
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