The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes
<p>Using a novel set of coordinated simulations from four different models, the response of the wintertime (December–February) North Atlantic jet stream and storm track to prescribed sea surface temperature increases and sea ice loss is analysed and the underlying physical mechanisms investiga...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/669/2025/wcd-6-669-2025.pdf |
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| author | D. Köhler P. Räisänen T. Naakka T. Naakka T. Naakka K. Nordling V. A. Sinclair |
| author_facet | D. Köhler P. Räisänen T. Naakka T. Naakka T. Naakka K. Nordling V. A. Sinclair |
| author_sort | D. Köhler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Using a novel set of coordinated simulations from four different models, the response of the wintertime (December–February) North Atlantic jet stream and storm track to prescribed sea surface temperature increases and sea ice loss is analysed and the underlying physical mechanisms investigated. Three out of the four models show a southward shift of the upper-level jet stream with an increase in jet speed over Europe, where the contribution of sea surface temperatures dominates over the effects of sea ice loss. However, the remaining model lacks the increase in jet speed over Europe, which originates from opposite responses of similar magnitude due to the future sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The jet stream responses are primarily driven by the change in the meridional temperature gradient and, as a consequence, baroclinicity. At the same time, momentum flux convergence acts as a secondary amplifying and dampening factor. The same three models see a significant eastward shift of the extratropical cyclone track density, which is equally driven by changes to sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. A consistent feature across all models is a decrease in the frequency of extratropical cyclones in the Mediterranean. The responses of extratropical cyclones to future sea ice cover and sea surface temperatures do not exceed the inter-model climatological differences. Notable differences in the future response of the jet stream and storm track occur, and thus considerable uncertainty remains in how the European climate will respond to a warmer climate.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-711d4e89c3af46c798f28dceb234231d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2698-4016 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-711d4e89c3af46c798f28dceb234231d2025-08-20T03:26:30ZengCopernicus PublicationsWeather and Climate Dynamics2698-40162025-06-01666969410.5194/wcd-6-669-2025The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changesD. Köhler0P. Räisänen1T. Naakka2T. Naakka3T. Naakka4K. Nordling5V. A. Sinclair6Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, P.O. Box 64, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, FinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandDepartment of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, SwedenFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, P.O. Box 64, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland<p>Using a novel set of coordinated simulations from four different models, the response of the wintertime (December–February) North Atlantic jet stream and storm track to prescribed sea surface temperature increases and sea ice loss is analysed and the underlying physical mechanisms investigated. Three out of the four models show a southward shift of the upper-level jet stream with an increase in jet speed over Europe, where the contribution of sea surface temperatures dominates over the effects of sea ice loss. However, the remaining model lacks the increase in jet speed over Europe, which originates from opposite responses of similar magnitude due to the future sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The jet stream responses are primarily driven by the change in the meridional temperature gradient and, as a consequence, baroclinicity. At the same time, momentum flux convergence acts as a secondary amplifying and dampening factor. The same three models see a significant eastward shift of the extratropical cyclone track density, which is equally driven by changes to sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. A consistent feature across all models is a decrease in the frequency of extratropical cyclones in the Mediterranean. The responses of extratropical cyclones to future sea ice cover and sea surface temperatures do not exceed the inter-model climatological differences. Notable differences in the future response of the jet stream and storm track occur, and thus considerable uncertainty remains in how the European climate will respond to a warmer climate.</p>https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/669/2025/wcd-6-669-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Köhler P. Räisänen T. Naakka T. Naakka T. Naakka K. Nordling V. A. Sinclair The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| title | The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes |
| title_full | The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes |
| title_fullStr | The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes |
| title_short | The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes |
| title_sort | future north atlantic jet stream and storm track relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes |
| url | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/669/2025/wcd-6-669-2025.pdf |
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