Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population

Abstract This study assessed the effect of MetS status changes over 3 years on the long-term risk of CKD. The analysis included 5686 participants aged ≥ 20 years without pre-existing CKD (57.5% women), followed for a median of 15 years. Participants were classified into 4 groups according to their b...

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Main Authors: Maryam Kabootari, Reza Habibi Tirtashi, Atefeh Amouzegar, Safdar Masoumi, Fereidoun Azizi, Atieh Amouzegar
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03690-5
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author Maryam Kabootari
Reza Habibi Tirtashi
Atefeh Amouzegar
Safdar Masoumi
Fereidoun Azizi
Atieh Amouzegar
author_facet Maryam Kabootari
Reza Habibi Tirtashi
Atefeh Amouzegar
Safdar Masoumi
Fereidoun Azizi
Atieh Amouzegar
author_sort Maryam Kabootari
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study assessed the effect of MetS status changes over 3 years on the long-term risk of CKD. The analysis included 5686 participants aged ≥ 20 years without pre-existing CKD (57.5% women), followed for a median of 15 years. Participants were classified into 4 groups according to their baseline MetS status and its changes: stable MetS-free, MetS-developed, MetS-recovered, and stable MetS. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident CKD with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using Cox’s proportional hazard models, adjusted for age, sex, education, physical activity, smoking status, and MetS components. During follow-up, a total of 1360 CKD (women = 881) occurred. Compared to the stable MetS-free group, the stable MetS [HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.06–1.71)] and MetS-developed [HR 1.22 (95% CI 1.03–1.45)] groups had a higher CKD risk. Conversely, recovery from MetS was not significantly associated with CKD risk. However, when using the stable MetS group as the reference, recovery from MetS was linked to a significant 23% lower CKD risk. Considering MetS component changes, persistent elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and high triglyceride, as well as recovered central obesity and new-onset high triglyceride, significantly impacted CKD incidence. In conclusion, persistent or newly developed MetS increased CKD risk, whereas recovery from MetS reduced the risk compared to persistent MetS.
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spelling doaj-art-70c0939bc3e24dc79ecec91a9d7e10e02025-08-20T02:00:08ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-05-011511810.1038/s41598-025-03690-5Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian populationMaryam Kabootari0Reza Habibi Tirtashi1Atefeh Amouzegar2Safdar Masoumi3Fereidoun Azizi4Atieh Amouzegar5Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Golestan University of Medical SciencesMetabolic Disorders Research Center, Golestan University of Medical SciencesFiroozgar Clinical Research Development Center (FCRDC), School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical SciencesEndocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesEndocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesEndocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesAbstract This study assessed the effect of MetS status changes over 3 years on the long-term risk of CKD. The analysis included 5686 participants aged ≥ 20 years without pre-existing CKD (57.5% women), followed for a median of 15 years. Participants were classified into 4 groups according to their baseline MetS status and its changes: stable MetS-free, MetS-developed, MetS-recovered, and stable MetS. Hazard ratios (HR) of incident CKD with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using Cox’s proportional hazard models, adjusted for age, sex, education, physical activity, smoking status, and MetS components. During follow-up, a total of 1360 CKD (women = 881) occurred. Compared to the stable MetS-free group, the stable MetS [HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.06–1.71)] and MetS-developed [HR 1.22 (95% CI 1.03–1.45)] groups had a higher CKD risk. Conversely, recovery from MetS was not significantly associated with CKD risk. However, when using the stable MetS group as the reference, recovery from MetS was linked to a significant 23% lower CKD risk. Considering MetS component changes, persistent elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and high triglyceride, as well as recovered central obesity and new-onset high triglyceride, significantly impacted CKD incidence. In conclusion, persistent or newly developed MetS increased CKD risk, whereas recovery from MetS reduced the risk compared to persistent MetS.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03690-5Metabolic syndromeChronic kidney diseaseChanges in MetS status
spellingShingle Maryam Kabootari
Reza Habibi Tirtashi
Atefeh Amouzegar
Safdar Masoumi
Fereidoun Azizi
Atieh Amouzegar
Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population
Scientific Reports
Metabolic syndrome
Chronic kidney disease
Changes in MetS status
title Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population
title_full Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population
title_fullStr Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population
title_full_unstemmed Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population
title_short Changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow-up in the Iranian population
title_sort changes in metabolic syndrome status and risk of chronic kidney disease over a decade of follow up in the iranian population
topic Metabolic syndrome
Chronic kidney disease
Changes in MetS status
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03690-5
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