The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults

Abstract The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a key indicator of insulin resistance, acts as a predictive factor for diabetes; however, its potential role as a prognostic marker for prediabetes (Pre-DM) remains to be elucidated. This retrospective cohort study enrolled 100,309 Chinese adults from a...

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Main Authors: Zhangxin Wen, Qinyi Wang, Chuo Luo, Yangna Ou, Licheng Tang, Hong Liu, Zhifeng Sheng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12293-z
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author Zhangxin Wen
Qinyi Wang
Chuo Luo
Yangna Ou
Licheng Tang
Hong Liu
Zhifeng Sheng
author_facet Zhangxin Wen
Qinyi Wang
Chuo Luo
Yangna Ou
Licheng Tang
Hong Liu
Zhifeng Sheng
author_sort Zhangxin Wen
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a key indicator of insulin resistance, acts as a predictive factor for diabetes; however, its potential role as a prognostic marker for prediabetes (Pre-DM) remains to be elucidated. This retrospective cohort study enrolled 100,309 Chinese adults from a hospital in China between January 2010 and December 2014. We employed Cox regression, generalized additive models (GAMs), and smooth curve fitting, supplemented by a series of sensitivity analyses, to evaluate the relationship between the TyG index and pre-DM (Pre-DM). To investigate the potential mediating effect of BMI on the association between the TyG index and Pre-DM, a mediation analysis was performed. The prevalence of Pre-DM was 12.3% over 6.0 years. After adjusting for the covariates, the results showed a positive relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and no pre-DM. (HR = 2.1, 95%CI 2.0-2.1). Furthermore, the TyG index level exhibited a non-linear correlation with the incidence of Pre-DM, and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings. Subgroup analysis revealed a more pronounced association between the TyG index and Pre-DM among females and individuals aged 60 years or younger with a body mass index (BMI) of 24 kg/m² or less. Both the TyG index and BMI level were notably correlated with Pre-DM, with BMI significantly mediating 30.7% of the relationship between the TyG index and Pre-DM. Our research confirms that the TyG index serves as an independent predictor for pre-DM among the Chinese population. The body mass index (BMI) partially mediates the correlation between the TyG index and pre-DM. It is particularly important for individuals with normal weight to pay close attention to their TyG index to prevent the progression towards pre-DM.
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spelling doaj-art-7058c91e25ed406588fb39e52f06e41c2025-08-20T03:43:11ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111110.1038/s41598-025-12293-zThe role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adultsZhangxin Wen0Qinyi Wang1Chuo Luo2Yangna Ou3Licheng Tang4Hong Liu5Zhifeng Sheng6Health Management Center, National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Hunan Provincial Clinical Medicine Research Center for Intelligent Management of Chronic Disease, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Metabolic Bone Diseases, Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya, Hospital of Central South UniversityHealth Management Center, National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Hunan Provincial Clinical Medicine Research Center for Intelligent Management of Chronic Disease, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Metabolic Bone Diseases, Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya, Hospital of Central South UniversityHealth Management Center, National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Hunan Provincial Clinical Medicine Research Center for Intelligent Management of Chronic Disease, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Metabolic Bone Diseases, Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya, Hospital of Central South UniversityHospital Infection Control Center, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South UniversityChangsha Aier Eye Hospital, Aier Eye Hospital GroupDepartment of Metabolic Endocrinology, Zhuzhou Hospital Affiliated to Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South UniversityHealth Management Center, National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Hunan Provincial Clinical Medicine Research Center for Intelligent Management of Chronic Disease, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Metabolic Bone Diseases, Department of Metabolism and Endocrinology, The Second Xiangya, Hospital of Central South UniversityAbstract The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a key indicator of insulin resistance, acts as a predictive factor for diabetes; however, its potential role as a prognostic marker for prediabetes (Pre-DM) remains to be elucidated. This retrospective cohort study enrolled 100,309 Chinese adults from a hospital in China between January 2010 and December 2014. We employed Cox regression, generalized additive models (GAMs), and smooth curve fitting, supplemented by a series of sensitivity analyses, to evaluate the relationship between the TyG index and pre-DM (Pre-DM). To investigate the potential mediating effect of BMI on the association between the TyG index and Pre-DM, a mediation analysis was performed. The prevalence of Pre-DM was 12.3% over 6.0 years. After adjusting for the covariates, the results showed a positive relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and no pre-DM. (HR = 2.1, 95%CI 2.0-2.1). Furthermore, the TyG index level exhibited a non-linear correlation with the incidence of Pre-DM, and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings. Subgroup analysis revealed a more pronounced association between the TyG index and Pre-DM among females and individuals aged 60 years or younger with a body mass index (BMI) of 24 kg/m² or less. Both the TyG index and BMI level were notably correlated with Pre-DM, with BMI significantly mediating 30.7% of the relationship between the TyG index and Pre-DM. Our research confirms that the TyG index serves as an independent predictor for pre-DM among the Chinese population. The body mass index (BMI) partially mediates the correlation between the TyG index and pre-DM. It is particularly important for individuals with normal weight to pay close attention to their TyG index to prevent the progression towards pre-DM.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12293-z
spellingShingle Zhangxin Wen
Qinyi Wang
Chuo Luo
Yangna Ou
Licheng Tang
Hong Liu
Zhifeng Sheng
The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
Scientific Reports
title The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
title_full The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
title_fullStr The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
title_full_unstemmed The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
title_short The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
title_sort role of triglyceride glucose index in predicting pre dm risk among chinese adults
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12293-z
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