On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya
Kenyan communities are exposed to natural disasters by an amalgamation of factors such as poverty, aridity, and settlements in areas susceptible to natural disasters or in areas with poor infrastructure. This is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. In an attempt to explain some...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9398309 |
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| author | Antony Rono Carolyne Ogutu Patrick Weke |
| author_facet | Antony Rono Carolyne Ogutu Patrick Weke |
| author_sort | Antony Rono |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Kenyan communities are exposed to natural disasters by an amalgamation of factors such as poverty, aridity, and settlements in areas susceptible to natural disasters or in areas with poor infrastructure. This is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. In an attempt to explain some of these variabilities, we model the extreme damages from natural disasters in Kenya by developing a compound distribution that takes into account both the frequency and the severity of the extreme events. The resulting distribution is based on a threshold model and compound extreme value distribution. For frequency of events exceeding a threshold of 150,000, we found that it follows a negative binomial distribution, while severity of exceedance follows a generalized Pareto distribution. This distribution fits the data well and is found to be a better model for natural disasters in Kenya than the traditional extreme value threshold model. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6fd3a895a5fa41bb85aa7785be69ba8c |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0161-1712 1687-0425 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-6fd3a895a5fa41bb85aa7785be69ba8c2025-08-20T02:06:15ZengWileyInternational Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences0161-17121687-04252020-01-01202010.1155/2020/93983099398309On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in KenyaAntony Rono0Carolyne Ogutu1Patrick Weke2School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, KenyaSchool of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, KenyaSchool of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, KenyaKenyan communities are exposed to natural disasters by an amalgamation of factors such as poverty, aridity, and settlements in areas susceptible to natural disasters or in areas with poor infrastructure. This is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. In an attempt to explain some of these variabilities, we model the extreme damages from natural disasters in Kenya by developing a compound distribution that takes into account both the frequency and the severity of the extreme events. The resulting distribution is based on a threshold model and compound extreme value distribution. For frequency of events exceeding a threshold of 150,000, we found that it follows a negative binomial distribution, while severity of exceedance follows a generalized Pareto distribution. This distribution fits the data well and is found to be a better model for natural disasters in Kenya than the traditional extreme value threshold model.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9398309 |
| spellingShingle | Antony Rono Carolyne Ogutu Patrick Weke On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| title | On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya |
| title_full | On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya |
| title_fullStr | On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya |
| title_full_unstemmed | On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya |
| title_short | On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya |
| title_sort | on compound distributions for natural disaster modelling in kenya |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9398309 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT antonyrono oncompounddistributionsfornaturaldisastermodellinginkenya AT carolyneogutu oncompounddistributionsfornaturaldisastermodellinginkenya AT patrickweke oncompounddistributionsfornaturaldisastermodellinginkenya |